Chiba Lotte Marines vs Fukuoka S. Hawks
Value found
+38.1% edgeChiba Lotte Marines win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chiba Lotte Marines | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
 Fukuoka S. Hawks | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 4-5
The data suggests a competitive matchup, but the numbers favor Fukuoka S. Hawks due to their higher overall win percentage and stronger offensive output in recent games. Chiba Lotte Marines, despite a solid home record, have struggled to score runs consistently, averaging just 2.7 over their last 10 games. Therefore, a close game is expected, with a likely slight edge for the away team.
- Chiba Lotte Marines have a home win rate of 60%.
- Fukuoka S. Hawks have a strong away win rate of 74%.
- In their last 10 games, Chiba averaged only 2.7 runs scored per game.
- Fukuoka has averaged 5.2 runs scored over their last 10 games.
Confidence is moderate because the win-probability gap between the two teams is moderate, and the bookmaker market sees this differently, which tempers confidence, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Chiba Lotte Marines
- Sharper attackFukuoka S. Hawks
Fukuoka S. Hawks are averaging 4.9 runs scored per game over their recent matches.
4.9/game - Tighter defenseFukuoka S. Hawks
Fukuoka S. Hawks are conceding just 3 runs per game over their recent matches.
3/game conceded - Historical edgeFukuoka S. Hawks
Fukuoka S. Hawks have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins - Higher league positionFukuoka S. Hawks
Fukuoka S. Hawks sit 4 places above Chiba Lotte Marines in the table.
#1 vs #5
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Chiba Lotte Marines at 60% — final result was Fukuoka S. Hawks win, Chiba Lotte Marines 2-4 Fukuoka S. Hawks.
Predicted score was 4-5.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (66/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Chiba Lotte Marines have averaged 3.4 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Fukuoka S. Hawks have averaged 4.9 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Chiba Lotte Marines are unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 meetings with Fukuoka S. Hawks.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Chiba Lotte Marines | Fukuoka S. Hawks |
|---|---|---|
| -1 | 2.83 | 1.34 |
| -0.5 | 2.30▼ | 1.55▲ |
| +0.5 | 2.23▼ | 1.58▲ |
| +1 | 1.88 | 1.78 |
| +1.5 | 1.76▲ | 2.00▼ |
| +2 | 1.57▲ | 2.25▲ |
| +2.5 | 1.47▲ | 2.51▼ |
| +3 | 1.34 | 2.86 |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 1.42 | 2.72 |
| 7 | 1.50▲ | 2.43▼ |
| 7.5 | 1.70▲ | 2.04▼ |
| 8 | 1.81▲ | 1.90▼ |
| 8.5 | 1.99▲ | 1.76 |
| 9 | 2.19▲ | 1.60▼ |
| 9.5 | 2.48▲ | 1.49▼ |
| 10 | 2.72▲ | 1.40▼ |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hanshin Tigers | 116 | 66 | 50 | +69 | 57 | — |
| 2 |  Yomiuri Giants | 118 | 63 | 55 | +27 | 53 | — |
| 3 |  Yokohama BayStars | 117 | 53 | 64 | +6 | 45 | — |
| 4 |  Yakult Swallows | 116 | 52 | 64 | -71 | 45 | — |
| 5 |  Chunichi Dragons | 120 | 51 | 69 | -7 | 43 | — |
| 6 |  Hiroshima Carp | 113 | 46 | 67 | -82 | 41 | — |
| 1 | Fukuoka S. Hawks | 117 | 72 | 45 | +180 | 62 | — |
| 2 |  Seibu Lions | 120 | 68 | 52 | +38 | 57 | — |
| 3 |  Nippon Ham Fighters | 120 | 66 | 54 | +66 | 55 | — |
| 4 |  Orix Buffaloes | 119 | 57 | 62 | -70 | 48 | — |
| 5 | Chiba Lotte Marines | 114 | 52 | 62 | -73 | 46 | — |
| 6 |  Rakuten Gold. Eagles | 116 | 45 | 71 | -83 | 39 | — |
More NPB predictions
Nippon Ham FightersChiba Lotte MarinesOrix BuffaloesFukuoka S. HawksSeibu LionsRakuten Gold. EaglesHiroshima CarpYakult SwallowsFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Chiba Lotte Marines vs Fukuoka S. Hawks?+
Our AI model favors Chiba Lotte Marines to win, with a 60% probability (Fukuoka S. Hawks 40%).
What time does Chiba Lotte Marines vs Fukuoka S. Hawks start?+
First pitch is at Aug 27, 2026, 9:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Chiba Lotte Marines vs Fukuoka S. Hawks?+
Chiba Lotte Marines: 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0. Fukuoka S. Hawks: 0, 4, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0. Final: 2-4.