Chicago Sky W vs New York Liberty W
Wintrust Arena
Value found
+1.6% edgeNew York Liberty W win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Total points edge
AI expects 160 total points vs the market's 182.5 line — leans under by 22.5 points.
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chicago Sky W | 24 | 30 | 20 | 19 | 93 |
 New York Liberty W | 24 | 19 | 23 | 20 | 86 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 75-85
The data suggests that New York Liberty W enters this matchup with a significant advantage, as they have consistently performed better in recent games and historically against Chicago Sky W. The Sky's struggles, especially at home, contribute to an estimated 33% chance of victory for them compared to 67% for the Liberty.
- Chicago Sky W has won only 2 of their last 10 games
- New York Liberty W has a higher away win rate at 40% compared to Chicago Sky W's 25% home win rate
- In their last 5 head-to-head matchups, New York Liberty W has won 4 times against Chicago Sky W
Confidence is high because the win-probability gap between the two teams is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors New York Liberty W
- Historical edgeNew York Liberty W
New York Liberty W have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
4/5 H2H wins - Good recent formChicago Sky W
Chicago Sky W have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L - Good recent formNew York Liberty W
New York Liberty W have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L - Tighter defenseNew York Liberty W
New York Liberty W are conceding just 85.6 points per game over their recent matches.
85.6/game conceded
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked New York Liberty W at 67% — final result was Chicago Sky W win, Chicago Sky W 93-86 New York Liberty W.
Predicted score was 75-85.
This was a high confidence pick (81/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Chicago Sky W have averaged 79.1 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- New York Liberty W have averaged 81.4 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Chicago Sky W are unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 meetings with New York Liberty W.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Chicago Sky W | New York Liberty W |
|---|---|---|
| -6.5 | 1.70 | 2.08 |
| -6 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
| -5.5 | 1.78 | 1.97 |
| -5 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
| -4.5 | 1.92 | 1.87 |
| -4 | 1.90 | 1.80 |
| -3.5 | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| -3 | 2.05 | 1.67 |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 180.5 | 1.73 | 2.03 |
| 181 | 1.73 | 2.00 |
| 181.5 | 1.80 | 1.93 |
| 182 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
| 182.5 | 1.88 | 1.87 |
| 183 | 1.90 | 1.80 |
| 183.5 | 1.99 | 1.76 |
| 184 | 2.00 | 1.73 |
Average price across 9 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Match statistics
Players to watch
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Atlanta Dream W | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — |
| 2 |  Indiana Fever W | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — |
| 3 | New York Liberty W | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — |
| 4 |  Washington Mystics W | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — |
| 5 | Chicago Sky W | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — |
| 6 |  Toronto Tempo W | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — |
| 7 |  Connecticut Sun W | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — |
| 1 |  Minnesota Lynx W | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — |
| 2 |  Golden State Valkyries W | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — |
| 3 |  Las Vegas Aces W | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — |
| 4 | Atlanta Dream W | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — |
| 5 | Indiana Fever W | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — |
| 6 | New York Liberty W | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — |
| 7 | Washington Mystics W | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — |
| 8 |  Dallas Wings W | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — |
| 9 |  Portland Fire W | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — |
| 10 | Chicago Sky W | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — |
| 11 |  Los Angeles Sparks W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — |
| 12 |  Phoenix Mercury W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — |
| 13 | Toronto Tempo W | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — |
| 14 | Connecticut Sun W | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — |
| 15 |  Seattle Storm W | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — |
| 1 | Minnesota Lynx W | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — |
| 2 | Golden State Valkyries W | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — |
| 3 | Las Vegas Aces W | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — |
| 4 | Dallas Wings W | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — |
| 5 | Portland Fire W | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — |
| 6 | Los Angeles Sparks W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — |
| 7 | Phoenix Mercury W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — |
| 8 | Seattle Storm W | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — |
Season comparison
Based on each team's last 20 and 20 finished games.
More NBA W predictions
Atlanta Dream WPortland Fire WIndiana Fever WConnecticut Sun WLos Angeles Sparks WWashington Mystics WLas Vegas Aces WToronto Tempo WFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Chicago Sky W vs New York Liberty W?+
Our AI model favors New York Liberty W to win, with a 67% probability (Chicago Sky W 33%).
What time does Chicago Sky W vs New York Liberty W start?+
Tip-off is at Aug 19, 2026, 1:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the score by quarter in Chicago Sky W vs New York Liberty W?+
Chicago Sky W: 24-30-20-19. New York Liberty W: 24-19-23-20. Final: 93-86.