Indiana Fever W vs Connecticut Sun W
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Kickoff: Aug 28, 2026, 7:30 PM (stadium time)
Your time: —
Value found
+96% edgeConnecticut Sun W win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Total points edge
AI expects 171 total points vs the market's 177.5 line — leans under by 6.5 points.
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 98-73
Data suggests that Indiana Fever W holds a considerable advantage as they rank second in the Eastern Conference and maintain a strong home win rate of 65%. Conversely, Connecticut Sun W has struggled throughout the season with a mere 25% win rate overall and has only found success in 15% of their away games. Historically, Indiana Fever W has fared well against Connecticut Sun W in their matchups, winning four out of the last five encounters.
- Indiana Fever W has a 65% home win rate this season
- Connecticut Sun W has only a 15% away win rate this season
- In their last five head-to-head matchups, Indiana Fever W has won four times against Connecticut Sun W
Confidence is high because the win-probability gap between the two teams is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Indiana Fever W
- Sharper attackIndiana Fever W
Indiana Fever W are averaging 96 points scored per game over their recent matches.
96/game - Higher league positionIndiana Fever W
Indiana Fever W sit 5 places above Connecticut Sun W in the table.
#2 vs #7 - Good recent formIndiana Fever W
Indiana Fever W have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L - Poor recent formConnecticut Sun W
Connecticut Sun W have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
Match trends
- Indiana Fever W have averaged 96 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Connecticut Sun W have averaged 74.7 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Indiana Fever W are unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 meetings with Connecticut Sun W.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Indiana Fever W | Connecticut Sun W |
|---|---|---|
| -18.5 | 2.07▲ | 1.70▼ |
| -18 | 2.04▲ | 1.73▼ |
| -17.5 | 1.94▲ | 1.82▼ |
| -17 | 1.89 | 1.88 |
| -16.5 | 1.83▲ | 1.93▼ |
| -16 | 1.77▲ | 1.97▼ |
| -15.5 | 1.71▲ | 2.05▼ |
| -15 | 1.65▲ | 2.13▼ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 176.5 | 1.78▲ | 1.96▼ |
| 177 | 1.80▲ | 1.95▼ |
| 177.5 | 1.87▲ | 1.89▼ |
| 178 | 1.90▲ | 1.87▼ |
| 178.5 | 1.95▲ | 1.81▼ |
| 179 | 1.96▲ | 1.81▼ |
| 179.5 | 1.99▲ | 1.77▼ |
| 180 | 1.95▲ | 1.81▼ |
Double chance
Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Players to watch
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — | |
| 2 | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — | |
| 3 | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — | |
| 4 | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — | |
| 5 | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — | |
| 6 | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — | |
| 7 | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — | |
| 1 | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — | |
| 2 | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — | |
| 3 | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — | |
| 4 | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — | |
| 5 | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — | |
| 6 | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — | |
| 7 | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — | |
| 8 | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — | |
| 9 | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — | |
| 10 | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — | |
| 11 | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — | |
| 12 | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — | |
| 13 | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — | |
| 14 | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — | |
| 15 | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — | |
| 1 | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — | |
| 2 | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — | |
| 3 | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — | |
| 4 | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — | |
| 5 | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — | |
| 6 | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — | |
| 7 | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — | |
| 8 | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — |
Season comparison
Based on each team's last 20 and 20 finished games.
More NBA W predictions
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Indiana Fever W vs Connecticut Sun W?+
Our AI model favors Indiana Fever W to win, with a 81% probability (Connecticut Sun W 19%).
What time does Indiana Fever W vs Connecticut Sun W start?+
Tip-off is at Aug 28, 2026, 11:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).

