Indiana Fever W vs Connecticut Sun W

NBA W
WLLWPts 960-9292nd in Eastern Conference · 25-14
LLWLPts 747-8707th in Eastern Conference · 9-27
Home13W 7L(1756-1608)
Away3W 17L(1483-1768)
Kicks off in

Gainbridge Fieldhouse

Kickoff: Aug 28, 2026, 7:30 PM (stadium time)

Value found

+96% edge

Connecticut Sun W win

5.26AI fair odds
10.32Bookmaker odds
+96%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Total points edge

AI expects 171 total points vs the market's 177.5 line — leans under by 6.5 points.

Today
Tip-off
In Progress
Final

AI match analysis

Indiana Fever W win
81%
Connecticut Sun W win
19%

Predicted score: 98-73

Data suggests that Indiana Fever W holds a considerable advantage as they rank second in the Eastern Conference and maintain a strong home win rate of 65%. Conversely, Connecticut Sun W has struggled throughout the season with a mere 25% win rate overall and has only found success in 15% of their away games. Historically, Indiana Fever W has fared well against Connecticut Sun W in their matchups, winning four out of the last five encounters.

  • Indiana Fever W has a 65% home win rate this season
  • Connecticut Sun W has only a 15% away win rate this season
  • In their last five head-to-head matchups, Indiana Fever W has won four times against Connecticut Sun W
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
91/100

Confidence is high because the win-probability gap between the two teams is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Indiana Fever W

  • Sharper attackIndiana Fever W

    Indiana Fever W are averaging 96 points scored per game over their recent matches.

    96/game
  • Higher league positionIndiana Fever W

    Indiana Fever W sit 5 places above Connecticut Sun W in the table.

    #2 vs #7
  • Good recent formIndiana Fever W

    Indiana Fever W have won 3 of their last 5 matches.

    3W 0D 2L
  • Poor recent formConnecticut Sun W

    Connecticut Sun W have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

    2W 0D 3L

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

Match trends

  • Indiana Fever W have averaged 96 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Connecticut Sun W have averaged 74.7 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Indiana Fever W are unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 meetings with Connecticut Sun W.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

Indiana Fever W1.05best 1.06AI 81%
Connecticut Sun W10.32best 11.78AI 19%

Point spread

LineIndiana Fever WConnecticut Sun W
-18.52.071.70
-182.041.73
-17.51.941.82
-171.891.88
-16.51.831.93
-161.771.97
-15.51.712.05
-151.652.13

Total points

LineOverUnder
176.51.781.96
1771.801.95
177.51.871.89
1781.901.87
178.51.951.81
1791.961.81
179.51.991.77
1801.951.81

Double chance

Draw/Away7.07
Home/Draw1.02

Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Moneyline — odds movement

Indiana Fever W1.05
Connecticut Sun W10.32 0.53
27 Aug28 Aug

Model vs market

Indiana Fever W win-9.8pp
AI
81%
Market
90.8%
Connecticut Sun W win+9.8pp
AI
19%
Market
9.2%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

Players to watch

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

3Indiana Fever W wins
2Connecticut Sun W wins
436-413Points

League standings

#TeamPWLDiffWin%Form
1
Atlanta Dream W
372413+20765
2
Indiana Fever W
392514+22264
3
New York Liberty W
382315+11961
4
Washington Mystics W
372215-1960
5
Chicago Sky W
381523-9540
6
Toronto Tempo W
371126-23730
7
Connecticut Sun W
36927-28825
1
Minnesota Lynx W
38317+33782
2
Golden State Valkyries W
362511+21269
3
Las Vegas Aces W
392613+14367
4
Atlanta Dream W
372413+20765
5
Indiana Fever W
392514+22264
6
New York Liberty W
382315+11961
7
Washington Mystics W
372215-1960
8
Dallas Wings W
382216+10258
9
Portland Fire W
371522-16241
10
Chicago Sky W
381523-9540
11
Los Angeles Sparks W
371324-19335
12
Phoenix Mercury W
371324-13835
13
Toronto Tempo W
371126-23730
14
Connecticut Sun W
36927-28825
15
Seattle Storm W
38731-21018
1
Minnesota Lynx W
38317+33782
2
Golden State Valkyries W
362511+21269
3
Las Vegas Aces W
392613+14367
4
Dallas Wings W
382216+10258
5
Portland Fire W
371522-16241
6
Los Angeles Sparks W
371324-19335
7
Phoenix Mercury W
371324-13835
8
Seattle Storm W
38731-21018

Season comparison

88.3Points scored per game77.1
84.6Points allowed per game84.6
44.9%Field goal %44.7%
35%3-point %25.6%
81.7%Free throw %72.9%
33Rebounds per game32.9
16.9Assists per game16.6
13.3Turnovers per game12.8

Based on each team's last 20 and 20 finished games.

More NBA W predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Indiana Fever W vs Connecticut Sun W?+

Our AI model favors Indiana Fever W to win, with a 81% probability (Connecticut Sun W 19%).

What time does Indiana Fever W vs Connecticut Sun W start?+

Tip-off is at Aug 28, 2026, 11:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).