Connecticut Sun W vs New York Liberty W
Mohegan Sun Arena
Value found
+13.8% edgeConnecticut Sun W win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Total points edge
AI expects 170 total points vs the market's 171.5 line — leans under by 1.5 points.
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Connecticut Sun W | 27 | 10 | 19 | 19 | 75 |
 New York Liberty W | 19 | 27 | 15 | 21 | 82 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 77-93
Data suggests that New York Liberty W is favored to win, bolstered by a recent head-to-head dominance over Connecticut Sun W. The Connecticut team has struggled significantly, with a loss in 8 of their last 10 games, while New York has shown more competitive form, winning 5 of their last 10. Based on the current statistics, expect a predicted score of 77 for Connecticut and 93 for New York.
- Connecticut Sun W has lost 8 of its last 10 games, indicating poor recent form.
- New York Liberty W has a better overall performance this season, winning 5 of their last 10 games.
- In their last 5 meetings, New York Liberty W has won 4 times against Connecticut Sun W.
Confidence is high because the win-probability gap between the two teams is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors New York Liberty W
- Tighter defenseNew York Liberty W
New York Liberty W are conceding just 85.6 points per game over their recent matches.
85.6/game conceded - Poor recent formConnecticut Sun W
Connecticut Sun W have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L - Good recent formNew York Liberty W
New York Liberty W have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L - Historical edgeNew York Liberty W
New York Liberty W have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
How did our prediction do?
We picked New York Liberty W at 70% — final result was New York Liberty W win, Connecticut Sun W 75-82 New York Liberty W.
Predicted score was 77-93.
This was a high confidence pick (82/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Connecticut Sun W have averaged 74.7 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- New York Liberty W have averaged 81.4 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Connecticut Sun W are unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 meetings with New York Liberty W.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Connecticut Sun W | New York Liberty W |
|---|---|---|
| +6.5 | 2.13▲ | 1.66▼ |
| +7 | 2.04▼ | 1.73▲ |
| +7.5 | 2.00▲ | 1.78▼ |
| +8 | 1.93▼ | 1.85▲ |
| +8.5 | 1.87 | 1.88▼ |
| +9 | 1.79▼ | 1.98▲ |
| +9.5 | 1.75▲ | 2.01▼ |
| +10.5 | 1.66▲ | 2.14▼ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 170 | 1.75▼ | 2.05▲ |
| 170.5 | 1.81▲ | 1.95▼ |
| 171 | 1.84▲ | 1.95▼ |
| 171.5 | 1.88▲ | 1.88▼ |
| 172 | 1.86▲ | 1.90 |
| 172.5 | 1.93▲ | 1.82▼ |
| 173 | 1.91▼ | 1.83▲ |
| 174 | 1.96▼ | 1.76▼ |
Double chance
Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Box score
Connecticut Sun W
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG | 3PT | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O. Nelson-Ododa | 28:02 | 21 | 10 | 0 | 7/9 | 0/0 | 7/7 |
| C. Leger-Walker | 31:48 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 1/5 | 4/9 | 0/0 |
| D. Miller | 32:18 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1/7 | 2/6 | 4/4 |
| Lacan Leila | 30:44 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 3/6 | 1/5 | 1/2 |
| Burke Kennedy | 21:11 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 | 1/5 | 2/2 |
Bench (5)
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG | 3PT | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Rivers | 21:00 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2/5 | 0/0 | 2/3 |
| N. Angloma | 12:57 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 1/2 |
| R. Beers | 11:58 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 2/2 |
| G. Kneepkens | 04:13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 0/0 |
| A. Jackson | 05:49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 0/0 |
New York Liberty W
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG | 3PT | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Jones | 34:41 | 23 | 11 | 2 | 6/9 | 3/7 | 2/2 |
| Johannes Marine | 30:35 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 1/1 | 5/8 | 0/0 |
| B. Stewart | 32:41 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 2/10 | 1/2 | 4/4 |
| Astier Pauline | 25:46 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4/6 | 0/2 | 0/0 |
| R. Allen | 29:27 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0/1 | 2/4 | 0/0 |
Bench (4)
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG | 3PT | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fauthoux Marine | 11:22 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1/4 | 1/2 | 3/5 |
| Gardner Rebekah | 15:14 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 |
| Han Xu | 12:38 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 | 0/1 | 0/0 |
| A. Maley | 07:36 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 |
Players to watch
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
New York Liberty WConnecticut Sun WConnecticut Sun WNew York Liberty WConnecticut Sun WNew York Liberty WNew York Liberty WConnecticut Sun WNew York Liberty WConnecticut Sun WLeague standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Atlanta Dream W | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — |
| 2 |  Indiana Fever W | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — |
| 3 | New York Liberty W | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — |
| 4 |  Washington Mystics W | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — |
| 5 |  Chicago Sky W | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — |
| 6 |  Toronto Tempo W | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — |
| 7 | Connecticut Sun W | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — |
| 1 |  Minnesota Lynx W | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — |
| 2 |  Golden State Valkyries W | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — |
| 3 |  Las Vegas Aces W | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — |
| 4 | Atlanta Dream W | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — |
| 5 | Indiana Fever W | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — |
| 6 | New York Liberty W | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — |
| 7 | Washington Mystics W | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — |
| 8 |  Dallas Wings W | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — |
| 9 |  Portland Fire W | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — |
| 10 | Chicago Sky W | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — |
| 11 |  Los Angeles Sparks W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — |
| 12 |  Phoenix Mercury W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — |
| 13 | Toronto Tempo W | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — |
| 14 | Connecticut Sun W | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — |
| 15 |  Seattle Storm W | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — |
| 1 | Minnesota Lynx W | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — |
| 2 | Golden State Valkyries W | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — |
| 3 | Las Vegas Aces W | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — |
| 4 | Dallas Wings W | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — |
| 5 | Portland Fire W | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — |
| 6 | Los Angeles Sparks W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — |
| 7 | Phoenix Mercury W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — |
| 8 | Seattle Storm W | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — |
Season comparison
Based on each team's last 20 and 20 finished games.
More NBA W predictions
Atlanta Dream WPortland Fire WIndiana Fever WConnecticut Sun WLos Angeles Sparks WWashington Mystics WLas Vegas Aces WToronto Tempo WFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Connecticut Sun W vs New York Liberty W?+
Our AI model favors New York Liberty W to win, with a 70% probability (Connecticut Sun W 30%).
What time does Connecticut Sun W vs New York Liberty W start?+
Tip-off is at Aug 15, 2026, 5:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the score by quarter in Connecticut Sun W vs New York Liberty W?+
Connecticut Sun W: 27-10-19-19. New York Liberty W: 19-27-15-21. Final: 75-82.