Hiroshima Carp vs Yokohama BayStars
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hiroshima Carp | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 8 | 11 | 1 |
 Yokohama BayStars | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 2 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 3-4
The analysis suggests that Yokohama BayStars have a strong historical advantage over Hiroshima Carp, winning 10 of their last 12 encounters. While Hiroshima's home win percentage is solid at 55%, their recent form shows an average of 3.2 runs scored and 3.8 runs allowed in their last 10 games, slightly less favorable than Yokohama's 2.9 runs scored and 3.5 runs allowed in the same span. Consequently, this matchup is likely to favor the BayStars with a predicted score of 4 to 3.
- Yokohama BayStars have won 10 of the last 12 matchups against Hiroshima Carp.
- Hiroshima Carp's home win rate this season is 55%.
- Yokohama BayStars have a slightly better overall season win percentage at 0.450 compared to Hiroshima's 0.407.
Confidence is high because the two teams are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Yokohama BayStars
- Historical edgeYokohama BayStars
Yokohama BayStars have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
4/5 H2H wins - Good recent formHiroshima Carp
Hiroshima Carp have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L - Poor recent formYokohama BayStars
Yokohama BayStars have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L - Higher league positionYokohama BayStars
Yokohama BayStars sit 3 places above Hiroshima Carp in the table.
#3 vs #6
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 53% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Yokohama BayStars at 53% — final result was Hiroshima Carp win, Hiroshima Carp 8-7 Yokohama BayStars.
Predicted score was 3-4.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (72/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Hiroshima Carp have averaged 3.3 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Yokohama BayStars have averaged 3.2 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Hiroshima Carp are unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 meetings with Yokohama BayStars.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Hiroshima Carp | Yokohama BayStars |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3.07▼ | 1.33▲ |
| -1 | 2.50 | 1.43 |
| -0.5 | 2.01 | 1.73 |
| +0.5 | 1.86 | 1.83 |
| +1 | 1.62 | 2.10 |
| +1.5 | 1.51▲ | 2.46▲ |
| +2 | 1.36▲ | 2.89▲ |
| +2.5 | 1.30 | 3.26▲ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1.37 | 2.83 |
| 5.5 | 1.59 | 2.23 |
| 6 | 1.68 | 2.06▲ |
| 6.5 | 1.88▲ | 1.85▼ |
| 7 | 2.10▼ | 1.66▲ |
| 7.5 | 2.38 | 1.52 |
| 8 | 2.68 | 1.41 |
| 8.5 | 2.80▼ | 1.38▲ |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hanshin Tigers | 114 | 64 | 50 | +63 | 56 | — |
| 2 |  Yomiuri Giants | 116 | 63 | 53 | +33 | 54 | — |
| 3 | Yokohama BayStars | 115 | 51 | 64 | +3 | 44 | — |
| 4 |  Yakult Swallows | 114 | 50 | 64 | -81 | 44 | — |
| 5 |  Chunichi Dragons | 118 | 51 | 67 | -4 | 43 | — |
| 6 | Hiroshima Carp | 111 | 46 | 65 | -72 | 41 | — |
| 1 |  Fukuoka S. Hawks | 115 | 71 | 44 | +179 | 62 | — |
| 2 |  Seibu Lions | 118 | 66 | 52 | +33 | 56 | — |
| 3 |  Nippon Ham Fighters | 118 | 64 | 54 | +62 | 54 | — |
| 4 |  Orix Buffaloes | 117 | 56 | 61 | -69 | 48 | — |
| 5 |  Chiba Lotte Marines | 112 | 52 | 60 | -69 | 46 | — |
| 6 |  Rakuten Gold. Eagles | 114 | 45 | 69 | -78 | 40 | — |
More NPB predictions
Nippon Ham FightersChiba Lotte MarinesSeibu LionsRakuten Gold. EaglesHanshin TigersYomiuri GiantsHiroshima CarpYakult SwallowsFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Hiroshima Carp vs Yokohama BayStars?+
Our AI model favors Yokohama BayStars to win, with a 53% probability (Hiroshima Carp 47%).
What time does Hiroshima Carp vs Yokohama BayStars start?+
First pitch is at Aug 25, 2026, 9:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Hiroshima Carp vs Yokohama BayStars?+
Hiroshima Carp: 0, 0, 0, 0, 8, 0, 0, 0. Yokohama BayStars: 0, 1, 0, 4, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0. Final: 8-7.