Hiroshima Carp vs Yokohama BayStars
Value found
+10.5% edgeHiroshima Carp win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hiroshima Carp | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — | 3 | 7 | 2 |
 Yokohama BayStars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 4-5
The analysis suggests a tightly contested matchup, with the Hiroshima Carp having found momentum, winning 8 of their last 10 games. Conversely, the Yokohama BayStars are struggling, losing 8 of their last 10, which may give the Carp an edge, particularly at home where they maintain a strong win rate.
- Hiroshima Carp has won 8 of their last 10 games, showing a strong home performance.
- Yokohama BayStars have lost 8 of their last 10 games, struggling to find form.
- Historically, the head-to-head record is close, but recent form favors Hiroshima Carp at home.
Confidence is high because the win-probability gap between the two teams is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Yokohama BayStars
- Good recent formHiroshima Carp
Hiroshima Carp have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L - Poor recent formYokohama BayStars
Yokohama BayStars have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L - Sharper attackHiroshima Carp
Hiroshima Carp are averaging 3.3 runs scored per game over their recent matches.
3.3/game - Tighter defenseHiroshima Carp
Hiroshima Carp are conceding just 3.3 runs per game over their recent matches.
3.3/game conceded
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 57% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Yokohama BayStars at 57% — final result was Hiroshima Carp win, Hiroshima Carp 3-2 Yokohama BayStars.
Predicted score was 4-5.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (73/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Hiroshima Carp have averaged 3.3 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Yokohama BayStars have averaged 3.2 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Hiroshima Carp are unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 meetings with Yokohama BayStars.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Hiroshima Carp | Yokohama BayStars |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5 | 2.60 | 1.45 |
| +0.5 | 2.42 | 1.51 |
| +1 | 2.07 | 1.64 |
| +1.5 | 1.79 | 1.96 |
| +2 | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| +2.5 | 1.47 | 2.53 |
| +3 | 1.35 | 2.86 |
| +3.5 | 1.27 | 3.55 |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1.40 | 2.72 |
| 5.5 | 1.61 | 2.20 |
| 6 | 1.73 | 2.01 |
| 6.5 | 1.91 | 1.83 |
| 7 | 2.14 | 1.63 |
| 7.5 | 2.42 | 1.51 |
| 8 | 2.73 | 1.40 |
| 8.5 | 2.85 | 1.37 |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hanshin Tigers | 114 | 64 | 50 | +63 | 56 | — |
| 2 |  Yomiuri Giants | 116 | 63 | 53 | +33 | 54 | — |
| 3 | Yokohama BayStars | 115 | 51 | 64 | +3 | 44 | — |
| 4 |  Yakult Swallows | 114 | 50 | 64 | -81 | 44 | — |
| 5 |  Chunichi Dragons | 118 | 51 | 67 | -4 | 43 | — |
| 6 | Hiroshima Carp | 111 | 46 | 65 | -72 | 41 | — |
| 1 |  Fukuoka S. Hawks | 115 | 71 | 44 | +179 | 62 | — |
| 2 |  Seibu Lions | 118 | 66 | 52 | +33 | 56 | — |
| 3 |  Nippon Ham Fighters | 118 | 64 | 54 | +62 | 54 | — |
| 4 |  Orix Buffaloes | 117 | 56 | 61 | -69 | 48 | — |
| 5 |  Chiba Lotte Marines | 112 | 52 | 60 | -69 | 46 | — |
| 6 |  Rakuten Gold. Eagles | 114 | 45 | 69 | -78 | 40 | — |
More NPB predictions
Nippon Ham FightersChiba Lotte MarinesSeibu LionsRakuten Gold. EaglesHanshin TigersYomiuri GiantsHiroshima CarpYakult SwallowsFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Hiroshima Carp vs Yokohama BayStars?+
Our AI model favors Yokohama BayStars to win, with a 57% probability (Hiroshima Carp 43%).
What time does Hiroshima Carp vs Yokohama BayStars start?+
First pitch is at Aug 26, 2026, 9:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Hiroshima Carp vs Yokohama BayStars?+
Hiroshima Carp: 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2. Yokohama BayStars: 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1. Final: 3-2.