Las Vegas Aces W vs Connecticut Sun W
Michelob Ultra Arena
Value found
+13.6% edgeConnecticut Sun W win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Total points edge
AI expects 165 total points vs the market's 167 line — leans under by 2 points.
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 23 | 27 | 26 | 101 | |
| 24 | 23 | 16 | 15 | 78 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 89-76
Data suggests that the Las Vegas Aces W are in a strong position ahead of their matchup against the Connecticut Sun W, having a solid home win rate of 85% this season. The Aces have also performed well recently, winning 8 of their last 10 games, while the Sun have struggled on the road with only a 20% win rate.
- Las Vegas Aces W have an impressive home win rate of 85% this season.
- Las Vegas Aces W have won 8 of their last 10 games, indicating strong recent form.
- Connecticut Sun W have only a 20% win rate on the road this season.
- Historically, Las Vegas Aces W have dominated head-to-head matchups, winning 5 of the last 5 against Connecticut Sun W.
Confidence is high because the win-probability gap between the two teams is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Las Vegas Aces W
- Sharper attackLas Vegas Aces W
Las Vegas Aces W are averaging 89.4 points scored per game over their recent matches.
89.4/game - Historical edgeLas Vegas Aces W
Las Vegas Aces W have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
5/5 H2H wins - Good recent formLas Vegas Aces W
Las Vegas Aces W have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L - Poor recent formConnecticut Sun W
Connecticut Sun W have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Las Vegas Aces W at 85% — final result was Las Vegas Aces W win, Las Vegas Aces W 101-78 Connecticut Sun W.
Predicted score was 89-76.
This was a high confidence pick (84/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Las Vegas Aces W have averaged 89.4 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Connecticut Sun W have averaged 74.7 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Las Vegas Aces W are unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 meetings with Connecticut Sun W.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Las Vegas Aces W | Connecticut Sun W |
|---|---|---|
| -16 | 2.11▲ | 1.68▼ |
| -15.5 | 2.03▲ | 1.73▼ |
| -15 | 1.99▲ | 1.79▼ |
| -14.5 | 1.92▲ | 1.85▼ |
| -14 | 1.86▲ | 1.92▼ |
| -13.5 | 1.79▲ | 1.96▼ |
| -13 | 1.72▲ | 2.03▼ |
| -12.5 | 1.68▲ | 2.09▼ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 165 | 1.74▼ | 2.00▲ |
| 165.5 | 1.74▼ | 2.01▲ |
| 166 | 1.81▼ | 1.94▲ |
| 166.5 | 1.83▼ | 1.91▲ |
| 167 | 1.87▼ | 1.88▲ |
| 167.5 | 1.90▼ | 1.86▲ |
| 168 | 1.98▲ | 1.77 |
| 168.5 | 1.96▼ | 1.77▲ |
Double chance
Average price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Match statistics
Players to watch
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — | |
| 2 | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — | |
| 3 | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — | |
| 4 | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — | |
| 5 | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — | |
| 6 | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — | |
| 7 | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — | |
| 1 | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — | |
| 2 | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — | |
| 3 | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — | |
| 4 | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — | |
| 5 | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — | |
| 6 | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — | |
| 7 | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — | |
| 8 | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — | |
| 9 | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — | |
| 10 | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — | |
| 11 | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — | |
| 12 | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — | |
| 13 | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — | |
| 14 | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — | |
| 15 | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — | |
| 1 | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — | |
| 2 | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — | |
| 3 | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — | |
| 4 | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — | |
| 5 | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — | |
| 6 | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — | |
| 7 | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — | |
| 8 | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — |
Season comparison
Based on each team's last 20 and 20 finished games.
More NBA W predictions
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Las Vegas Aces W vs Connecticut Sun W?+
Our AI model favors Las Vegas Aces W to win, with a 85% probability (Connecticut Sun W 15%).
What time does Las Vegas Aces W vs Connecticut Sun W start?+
Tip-off is at Aug 21, 2026, 2:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the score by quarter in Las Vegas Aces W vs Connecticut Sun W?+
Las Vegas Aces W: 25-23-27-26. Connecticut Sun W: 24-23-16-15. Final: 101-78.

