Las Vegas Aces W vs Connecticut Sun W

NBA W
LLWWPts 894-8353rd in Overall Standings · 26-13
LLWLPts 747-8707th in Eastern Conference · 9-27
Home17W 3L(1774-1585)
Away3W 17L(1483-1768)

Michelob Ultra Arena

Value found

+13.6% edge

Connecticut Sun W win

6.67AI fair odds
7.57Bookmaker odds
+13.6%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Total points edge

AI expects 165 total points vs the market's 167 line — leans under by 2 points.

Today
Tip-off
In Progress
Final

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Las Vegas Aces W
25232726101
Connecticut Sun W
2423161578

AI match analysis

Las Vegas Aces W win
85%
Connecticut Sun W win
15%

Predicted score: 89-76

Data suggests that the Las Vegas Aces W are in a strong position ahead of their matchup against the Connecticut Sun W, having a solid home win rate of 85% this season. The Aces have also performed well recently, winning 8 of their last 10 games, while the Sun have struggled on the road with only a 20% win rate.

  • Las Vegas Aces W have an impressive home win rate of 85% this season.
  • Las Vegas Aces W have won 8 of their last 10 games, indicating strong recent form.
  • Connecticut Sun W have only a 20% win rate on the road this season.
  • Historically, Las Vegas Aces W have dominated head-to-head matchups, winning 5 of the last 5 against Connecticut Sun W.
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
84/100

Confidence is high because the win-probability gap between the two teams is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Las Vegas Aces W

  • Sharper attackLas Vegas Aces W

    Las Vegas Aces W are averaging 89.4 points scored per game over their recent matches.

    89.4/game
  • Historical edgeLas Vegas Aces W

    Las Vegas Aces W have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.

    5/5 H2H wins
  • Good recent formLas Vegas Aces W

    Las Vegas Aces W have won 3 of their last 5 matches.

    3W 0D 2L
  • Poor recent formConnecticut Sun W

    Connecticut Sun W have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

    2W 0D 3L

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Las Vegas Aces W at 85% — final result was Las Vegas Aces W win, Las Vegas Aces W 101-78 Connecticut Sun W.

Predicted score was 89-76.

This was a high confidence pick (84/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Las Vegas Aces W1.08market 92.3% · model 85%
Connecticut Sun W7.57market 13.2% · model 15%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Las Vegas Aces W have averaged 89.4 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Connecticut Sun W have averaged 74.7 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Las Vegas Aces W are unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 meetings with Connecticut Sun W.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

Las Vegas Aces W1.08best 1.11AI 85%
Connecticut Sun W7.57best 9.50AI 15%

Point spread

LineLas Vegas Aces WConnecticut Sun W
-162.111.68
-15.52.031.73
-151.991.79
-14.51.921.85
-141.861.92
-13.51.791.96
-131.722.03
-12.51.682.09

Total points

LineOverUnder
1651.742.00
165.51.742.01
1661.811.94
166.51.831.91
1671.871.88
167.51.901.86
1681.981.77
168.51.961.77

Double chance

Draw/Away5.57
Home/Draw1.06

Average price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Moneyline — odds movement

Las Vegas Aces W1.08 0.01
Connecticut Sun W7.57 0.43
20 Aug20 Aug

Model vs market

Las Vegas Aces W win-2.5pp
AI
85%
Market
87.5%
Connecticut Sun W win+2.5pp
AI
15%
Market
12.5%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

Match statistics

56%Field goal %55%
36%3-point %27%
82%Free throw %78%
40Rebounds23
23Assists18
7Steals7
2Blocks3
11Turnovers19
Personal fouls

Players to watch

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

5Las Vegas Aces W wins
0Connecticut Sun W wins
436-346Points

League standings

#TeamPWLDiffWin%Form
1
Atlanta Dream W
372413+20765
2
Indiana Fever W
392514+22264
3
New York Liberty W
382315+11961
4
Washington Mystics W
372215-1960
5
Chicago Sky W
381523-9540
6
Toronto Tempo W
371126-23730
7
Connecticut Sun W
36927-28825
1
Minnesota Lynx W
38317+33782
2
Golden State Valkyries W
362511+21269
3
Las Vegas Aces W
392613+14367
4
Atlanta Dream W
372413+20765
5
Indiana Fever W
392514+22264
6
New York Liberty W
382315+11961
7
Washington Mystics W
372215-1960
8
Dallas Wings W
382216+10258
9
Portland Fire W
371522-16241
10
Chicago Sky W
381523-9540
11
Los Angeles Sparks W
371324-19335
12
Phoenix Mercury W
371324-13835
13
Toronto Tempo W
371126-23730
14
Connecticut Sun W
36927-28825
15
Seattle Storm W
38731-21018
1
Minnesota Lynx W
38317+33782
2
Golden State Valkyries W
362511+21269
3
Las Vegas Aces W
392613+14367
4
Dallas Wings W
382216+10258
5
Portland Fire W
371522-16241
6
Los Angeles Sparks W
371324-19335
7
Phoenix Mercury W
371324-13835
8
Seattle Storm W
38731-21018

Season comparison

89.3Points scored per game77.1
81.2Points allowed per game84.6
48.1%Field goal %44.7%
36.9%3-point %25.6%
83.2%Free throw %72.9%
29.6Rebounds per game32.9
20.5Assists per game16.6
11.3Turnovers per game12.8

Based on each team's last 20 and 20 finished games.

More NBA W predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Las Vegas Aces W vs Connecticut Sun W?+

Our AI model favors Las Vegas Aces W to win, with a 85% probability (Connecticut Sun W 15%).

What time does Las Vegas Aces W vs Connecticut Sun W start?+

Tip-off is at Aug 21, 2026, 2:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).

What was the score by quarter in Las Vegas Aces W vs Connecticut Sun W?+

Las Vegas Aces W: 25-23-27-26. Connecticut Sun W: 24-23-16-15. Final: 101-78.