Los Angeles Sparks W vs Phoenix Mercury W
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Value found
+4.3% edgePhoenix Mercury W win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Total points edge
AI expects 166 total points vs the market's 177.5 line — leans under by 11.5 points.
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Los Angeles Sparks W | 23 | 24 | 20 | 20 | 87 |
 Phoenix Mercury W | 23 | 21 | 24 | 26 | 94 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 82-84
The numbers favor a competitive matchup, especially given that the Phoenix Mercury W have averaged 83.1 points scored per game recently, while the Los Angeles Sparks W have struggled defensively, conceding 86.4 points on average. Historically, Phoenix leads the recent head-to-head with a slight edge at 3-2, suggesting they may carry a psychological advantage into this game.
- Phoenix Mercury W averaged 83.1 points scored per game in their last 10 matches.
- Los Angeles Sparks W have conceded an average of 86.4 points in their last 10 matches.
- In their last 5 encounters, Phoenix Mercury W leads the head-to-head 3-2 against Los Angeles Sparks W.
Confidence is low because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Phoenix Mercury W
- Historical edgePhoenix Mercury W
Phoenix Mercury W have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
4/5 H2H wins - Poor recent formLos Angeles Sparks W
Los Angeles Sparks W have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
1W 0D 4L - Poor recent formPhoenix Mercury W
Phoenix Mercury W have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
1W 0D 4L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- Below-average model confidence
Overall model confidence for this match is 39/100 — treat the prediction as directional rather than decisive.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 49% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Phoenix Mercury W at 49% — final result was Phoenix Mercury W win, Los Angeles Sparks W 87-94 Phoenix Mercury W.
Predicted score was 82-84.
The model itself only flagged this as a low confidence pick (39/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Los Angeles Sparks W have averaged 80.5 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Phoenix Mercury W have averaged 84.9 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Los Angeles Sparks W are unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 meetings with Phoenix Mercury W.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Los Angeles Sparks W | Phoenix Mercury W |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 2.02▼ | 1.74▲ |
| -3 | 1.98▼ | 1.79▲ |
| -2.5 | 1.92▼ | 1.86▲ |
| -2 | 1.87▼ | 1.91▲ |
| -1.5 | 1.80▼ | 1.96▲ |
| -1 | 1.76▼ | 2.02▲ |
| -0.5 | 1.76▼ | 2.08▲ |
| +0.5 | 1.76▼ | 2.08▲ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 176 | 1.75▲ | 2.01▼ |
| 176.5 | 1.81▲ | 1.95▼ |
| 177 | 1.84▲ | 1.93▼ |
| 177.5 | 1.87▲ | 1.89▼ |
| 178 | 1.91▲ | 1.85▼ |
| 178.5 | 1.95▲ | 1.81▼ |
| 179 | 1.98▲ | 1.77▼ |
| 180 | 2.03▲ | 1.73▼ |
Double chance
Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Box score
Los Angeles Sparks W
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG | 3PT | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Burrell | 34:53 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 6/13 | 0/8 | 7/8 |
| D. Hamby | 31:32 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 8/8 | 0/0 | 3/5 |
| N. Ogwumike | 32:30 | 18 | 9 | 8 | 4/10 | 2/4 | 4/4 |
| Wheeler Erica | 29:54 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 2/4 | 1/7 | 0/0 |
| A. Atkins | 31:55 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1/2 | 1/5 | 0/2 |
Bench (5)
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG | 3PT | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Brink | 15:58 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 3/3 | 0/3 | 1/1 |
| Park Ji-Hyun | 05:19 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1/1 | 1/2 | 0/0 |
| C. Gray | 07:53 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 1/2 |
| T. Morgan | 06:25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 |
| K. Williams | 03:41 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 |
Phoenix Mercury W
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG | 3PT | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brochant Noemie | 30:06 | 24 | 3 | 3 | 7/7 | 3/6 | 1/3 |
| K. Copper | 35:07 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 6/11 | 1/5 | 3/4 |
| A. Thomas | 33:08 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 5/8 | 0/0 | 6/7 |
| D. Bonner | 27:00 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 0/1 | 2/4 | 5/6 |
| Whitcomb Sami | 22:10 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0/1 | 2/5 | 1/1 |
Bench (4)
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG | 3PT | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Mack | 13:00 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4/4 | 0/0 | 1/1 |
| Vukosavljevic Valeriane | 19:46 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0/1 | 1/3 | 4/4 |
| A. Held | 12:51 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0/2 | 0/1 | 2/4 |
| M. Suarez Rodriguez | 06:52 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/0 |
Match statistics
Players to watch
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
Phoenix Mercury WLos Angeles Sparks WLos Angeles Sparks WPhoenix Mercury WLos Angeles Sparks WPhoenix Mercury WPhoenix Mercury WLos Angeles Sparks WLos Angeles Sparks WPhoenix Mercury WLeague standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Atlanta Dream W | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — |
| 2 |  Indiana Fever W | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — |
| 3 |  New York Liberty W | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — |
| 4 |  Washington Mystics W | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — |
| 5 |  Chicago Sky W | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — |
| 6 |  Toronto Tempo W | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — |
| 7 |  Connecticut Sun W | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — |
| 1 |  Minnesota Lynx W | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — |
| 2 |  Golden State Valkyries W | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — |
| 3 |  Las Vegas Aces W | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — |
| 4 | Atlanta Dream W | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — |
| 5 | Indiana Fever W | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — |
| 6 | New York Liberty W | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — |
| 7 | Washington Mystics W | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — |
| 8 |  Dallas Wings W | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — |
| 9 |  Portland Fire W | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — |
| 10 | Chicago Sky W | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — |
| 11 | Los Angeles Sparks W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — |
| 12 | Phoenix Mercury W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — |
| 13 | Toronto Tempo W | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — |
| 14 | Connecticut Sun W | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — |
| 15 |  Seattle Storm W | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — |
| 1 | Minnesota Lynx W | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — |
| 2 | Golden State Valkyries W | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — |
| 3 | Las Vegas Aces W | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — |
| 4 | Dallas Wings W | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — |
| 5 | Portland Fire W | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — |
| 6 | Los Angeles Sparks W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — |
| 7 | Phoenix Mercury W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — |
| 8 | Seattle Storm W | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — |
Season comparison
Based on each team's last 20 and 20 finished games.
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Who is likely to win Los Angeles Sparks W vs Phoenix Mercury W?+
Our AI model favors Phoenix Mercury W to win, with a 49% probability (Los Angeles Sparks W 51%).
What time does Los Angeles Sparks W vs Phoenix Mercury W start?+
Tip-off is at Aug 12, 2026, 2:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the score by quarter in Los Angeles Sparks W vs Phoenix Mercury W?+
Los Angeles Sparks W: 23-24-20-20. Phoenix Mercury W: 23-21-24-26. Final: 87-94.