Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals

MLB
WLLWRuns 39-343rd in NL East Division · 68-66
WLLWRuns 34-404th in NL East Division · 62-73
Home13W 7L(87-76)
Away7W 13L(76-95)
Today
First pitch
In Progress
Final

Box score

Team123456789RHE
Miami Marlins
21010000471
Washington Nationals
000110000230

AI match analysis

Miami Marlins win
56%
Washington Nationals win
34%

Predicted score: 4-3

The data suggests that the Miami Marlins currently hold an advantage over the Washington Nationals based on their recent head-to-head performances, winning three of the last five matchups. Additionally, the Nationals' struggle with a high average of 4.3 runs allowed in their recent games could play a crucial role in the outcome, favoring the Marlins to score effectively. Given their scoring averages and home advantage, a narrow victory for Miami appears likely.

  • Miami Marlins won 3 of last 5 matchups against Nationals
  • Washington Nationals have conceded an average of 4.3 runs in last 10 matches
  • Marlins scored 3.9 runs per game over last 10 matches
AI ConfidenceModerate confidence
71/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Miami Marlins

  • Good recent formMiami Marlins

    Miami Marlins have won 3 of their last 5 matches.

    3W 0D 2L
  • Poor recent formWashington Nationals

    Washington Nationals have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

    2W 0D 3L
  • Historical edgeMiami Marlins

    Miami Marlins have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.

    4/5 H2H wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Miami Marlins at 56% — final result was Miami Marlins win, Miami Marlins 4-2 Washington Nationals.

Predicted score was 4-3.

The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (71/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.

Closing odds vs. our model

Miami Marlins1.54market 65% · model 56%
Washington Nationals2.53market 39.5% · model 34%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Miami Marlins have averaged 3.9 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Washington Nationals have averaged 3.4 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Miami Marlins are unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 meetings with Washington Nationals.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

Miami Marlins1.54best 1.58AI 56%
Washington Nationals2.53best 2.60AI 34%

Point spread

LineMiami MarlinsWashington Nationals
-3.53.671.27
-33.381.29
-2.52.811.41
-22.541.50
-1.52.191.69
-11.792.01
+11.363.08
+1.51.303.39

Total points

LineOverUnder
61.362.99
6.51.502.53
71.622.26
7.51.871.95
81.981.80
8.52.161.67
92.501.51
9.52.731.43

Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Moneyline — odds movement

Miami Marlins1.54
Washington Nationals2.53 0.03
22 Aug22 Aug

Model vs market

Miami Marlins win-6.2pp
AI
56%
Market
62.2%
Washington Nationals win-3.8pp
AI
34%
Market
37.8%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

4Miami Marlins wins
1Washington Nationals wins
27-14Runs

League standings

#TeamPWLDiffWin%Form
1
Chicago White Sox
1337063+4453
2
Cleveland Guardians
1346866-451
3
Minnesota Twins
1346470-5648
4
Detroit Tigers
1336271+7047
5
Kansas City Royals
1345975-9244
1
Tampa Bay Rays
1337954+4759
2
New York Yankees
1327557+10457
3
Boston Red Sox
1337360+10155
4
Baltimore Orioles
1336568-2249
5
Toronto Blue Jays
1346569-5449
1
Houston Astros
1336667-4850
2
Texas Rangers
1346668-4749
3
Seattle Mariners
1346470-5748
4
Athletics
1345381-18540
5
Los Angeles Angels
1345282-7539
1
Tampa Bay Rays
1337954+4759
2
New York Yankees
1327557+10457
3
Boston Red Sox
1337360+10155
4
Chicago White Sox
1337063+4453
5
Cleveland Guardians
1346866-451
6
Houston Astros
1336667-4850
7
Texas Rangers
1346668-4749
8
Baltimore Orioles
1336568-2249
9
Toronto Blue Jays
1346569-5449
10
Seattle Mariners
1346470-5748
11
Minnesota Twins
1346470-5648
12
Detroit Tigers
1336271+7047
13
Kansas City Royals
1345975-9244
14
Athletics
1345381-18540
15
Los Angeles Angels
1345282-7539
1
Milwaukee Brewers
1338251+16762
2
Chicago Cubs
1347658+11957
3
St.Louis Cardinals
1346668-1549
4
Pittsburgh Pirates
1356570+2448
5
Cincinnati Reds
1346371-10047
1
Atlanta Braves
1337855+11259
2
Philadelphia Phillies
1347460+2355
3
Miami Marlins
1346866+1951
4
Washington Nationals
1356273+646
5
New York Mets
1336073-4645
1
Los Angeles Dodgers
1338053+14960
2
San Diego Padres
1347262+1754
3
Arizona Diamondbacks
1347163+553
4
San Francisco Giants
1335479-7441
5
Colorado Rockies
1335281-13239
1
Milwaukee Brewers
1338251+16762
2
Los Angeles Dodgers
1338053+14960
3
Atlanta Braves
1337855+11259
4
Chicago Cubs
1347658+11957
5
Philadelphia Phillies
1347460+2355
6
San Diego Padres
1347262+1754
7
Arizona Diamondbacks
1347163+553
8
Miami Marlins
1346866+1951
9
St.Louis Cardinals
1346668-1549
10
Pittsburgh Pirates
1356570+2448
11
Cincinnati Reds
1346371-10047
12
Washington Nationals
1356273+646
13
New York Mets
1336073-4645
14
San Francisco Giants
1335479-7441
15
Colorado Rockies
1335281-13239

More MLB predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals?+

Our AI model favors Miami Marlins to win, with a 56% probability (Washington Nationals 44%).

What time does Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals start?+

First pitch is at Aug 22, 2026, 8:10 PM (your local time, based on your device).

What was the inning-by-inning score in Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals?+

Miami Marlins: 2, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0. Washington Nationals: 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0. Final: 4-2.