Rakuten Gold. Eagles vs Seibu Lions
Value found
+2% edgeSeibu Lions win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | X | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rakuten Gold. Eagles | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
 Seibu Lions | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 4-5
Data suggests that the Seibu Lions have the upper hand in this matchup, having won 2 consecutive games against the Rakuten Gold. Eagles. While the Eagles have performed moderately well at home, their struggles against Seibu in previous games and overall form reflect a challenging outlook. The statistics indicate a likely close contest, but the numbers favor the away team.
- Seibu Lions hold a strong away win rate of 40% this season, reflecting solid performance on the road.
- Rakuten Gold. Eagles have lost their last 2 matchups against Seibu Lions at home.
- In their last 10 games, Rakuten Gold. Eagles have averaged 3.9 runs scored, showing they can struggle offensively.
- Seibu Lions average 4.1 runs scored and only 2.9 runs allowed in their last 10 games, suggesting better overall form.
Confidence is high because the two teams are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Seibu Lions
- Poor recent formRakuten Gold. Eagles
Rakuten Gold. Eagles have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L - Good recent formSeibu Lions
Seibu Lions have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L - Tighter defenseSeibu Lions
Seibu Lions are conceding just 2.9 runs per game over their recent matches.
2.9/game conceded - Historical edgeSeibu Lions
Seibu Lions have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 55% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Seibu Lions at 55% — final result was Seibu Lions win, Rakuten Gold. Eagles 1-3 Seibu Lions.
Predicted score was 4-5.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (72/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Rakuten Gold. Eagles have averaged 4.5 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Seibu Lions have averaged 4.1 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Rakuten Gold. Eagles are unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 meetings with Seibu Lions.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Rakuten Gold. Eagles | Seibu Lions |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3.01 | 1.34 |
| -1 | 2.47 | 1.44 |
| -0.5 | 1.94 | 1.77 |
| +0.5 | 1.83 | 1.86 |
| +1 | 1.59 | 2.15 |
| +1.5 | 1.47 | 2.58 |
| +2 | 1.32 | 3.02 |
| +2.5 | 1.27 | 3.45 |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1.42 | 2.64 |
| 5.5 | 1.64 | 2.13 |
| 6 | 1.77 | 1.94 |
| 6.5 | 1.97 | 1.78 |
| 7 | 2.20 | 1.59 |
| 7.5 | 2.51 | 1.48 |
| 8 | 2.85 | 1.34 |
| 8.5 | 3.00 | 1.33 |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hanshin Tigers | 115 | 65 | 50 | +66 | 56 | — |
| 2 |  Yomiuri Giants | 117 | 63 | 54 | +30 | 54 | — |
| 3 |  Yokohama BayStars | 116 | 52 | 64 | +5 | 45 | — |
| 4 |  Yakult Swallows | 115 | 51 | 64 | -79 | 44 | — |
| 5 |  Chunichi Dragons | 119 | 51 | 68 | -6 | 43 | — |
| 6 |  Hiroshima Carp | 112 | 46 | 66 | -74 | 41 | — |
| 1 |  Fukuoka S. Hawks | 116 | 72 | 44 | +181 | 62 | — |
| 2 | Seibu Lions | 119 | 67 | 52 | +37 | 56 | — |
| 3 |  Nippon Ham Fighters | 119 | 65 | 54 | +64 | 55 | — |
| 4 |  Orix Buffaloes | 118 | 56 | 62 | -71 | 48 | — |
| 5 |  Chiba Lotte Marines | 113 | 52 | 61 | -71 | 46 | — |
| 6 | Rakuten Gold. Eagles | 115 | 45 | 70 | -82 | 39 | — |
More NPB predictions
Nippon Ham FightersChiba Lotte MarinesSeibu LionsRakuten Gold. EaglesHanshin TigersYomiuri GiantsHiroshima CarpYakult SwallowsFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Rakuten Gold. Eagles vs Seibu Lions?+
Our AI model favors Seibu Lions to win, with a 55% probability (Rakuten Gold. Eagles 45%).
What time does Rakuten Gold. Eagles vs Seibu Lions start?+
First pitch is at Aug 23, 2026, 7:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Rakuten Gold. Eagles vs Seibu Lions?+
Rakuten Gold. Eagles: 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0. Seibu Lions: 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0. Final: 1-3.