San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | X | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
 Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 5-4
Recent form suggests that the San Diego Padres are performing well at home, having recently dominated the Minnesota Twins. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Pirates are struggling away, with a series of losses to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Historically, the Padres have had an edge in their recent meetings with the Pirates, which could play a significant role in the upcoming match.
- San Diego Padres have won 4 of their last 5 matches at home against Minnesota Twins
- Pittsburgh Pirates have lost their last 3 matches against Los Angeles Dodgers
- San Diego Padres scored an average of 4.6 runs in their last 10 matches
Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors San Diego Padres
- Historical edgeSan Diego Padres
San Diego Padres have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins - Good recent formSan Diego Padres
San Diego Padres have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L - Poor recent formPittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 46% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked San Diego Padres at 45.71% — final result was Pittsburgh Pirates win, San Diego Padres 2-3 Pittsburgh Pirates.
Predicted score was 5-4.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (55/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- San Diego Padres have averaged 3.9 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Pittsburgh Pirates have averaged 3.2 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- San Diego Padres are unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 meetings with Pittsburgh Pirates.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | San Diego Padres | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 3.95 | 1.23 |
| -2 | 3.65 | 1.26 |
| -1.5 | 2.77 | 1.43 |
| -1 | 2.32 | 1.60 |
| +1 | 1.61 | 2.31 |
| +1.5 | 1.50 | 2.62 |
| +2 | 1.33 | 3.18 |
| +2.5 | 1.27 | 3.56 |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 1.38 | 2.89 |
| 6 | 1.44 | 2.70 |
| 6.5 | 1.58 | 2.35 |
| 7 | 1.74 | 2.08 |
| 7.5 | 1.97 | 1.85 |
| 8 | 2.15 | 1.67 |
| 8.5 | 2.33 | 1.59 |
| 9 | 2.77 | 1.42 |
Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
More MLB predictions
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Los Angeles Dodgers
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New York Mets
Houston Astros
Tampa Bay RaysSan Diego PadresFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates?+
Our AI model favors San Diego Padres to win, with a 45.71% probability (Pittsburgh Pirates 54.29%).
What time does San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates start?+
First pitch is at Aug 25, 2026, 1:40 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates?+
San Diego Padres: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0. Pittsburgh Pirates: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0. Final: 2-3.