Yakult Swallows vs Yomiuri Giants
Value found
+22% edgeYakult Swallows win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Yakult Swallows | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 1 |
 Yomiuri Giants | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 0 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 4-3
The data suggests that Yakult Swallows have a notable advantage at home, posting a 68% win rate and strong defensive stats in recent games. Conversely, Yomiuri Giants have struggled away from home with a 37% win rate, contributing to lower expected performance in this matchup. Considering both teams' recent forms and head-to-head outcomes, Yakult appears likely to secure the win.
- Yakult Swallows have a strong home win rate of 68% this season.
- In their last 10 games, Yakult scored an average of 3.8 runs while allowing only 2.3 runs per game.
- Yomiuri Giants struggle with a 37% away win rate this season and a recent average of 3.4 runs scored in their last 10 games.
- The head-to-head record is balanced, but recent form leans slightly towards Yakult with a significant win 12-1 in their last matchup.
Confidence is high because the win-probability gap between the two teams is moderate, and the bookmaker market sees this differently, which tempers confidence, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Yakult Swallows
- Strong home recordYakult Swallows
Yakult Swallows have won 11 of their last 19 home matches.
11/19 home wins - Strong away recordYomiuri Giants
Yomiuri Giants have won 8 of their last 19 away matches.
8/19 away wins - Higher league positionYomiuri Giants
Yomiuri Giants sit 2 places above Yakult Swallows in the table.
#2 vs #4 - Sharper attackYakult Swallows
Yakult Swallows are averaging 2.7 runs scored per game over their recent matches.
2.7/game
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Yakult Swallows at 60% — final result was Yomiuri Giants win, Yakult Swallows 6-8 Yomiuri Giants.
Predicted score was 4-3.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (72/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Yakult Swallows have averaged 2.7 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Yomiuri Giants have averaged 4.1 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Yakult Swallows are unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 meetings with Yomiuri Giants.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Yakult Swallows | Yomiuri Giants |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2.98▼ | 1.34▲ |
| -1 | 2.50▼ | 1.43▲ |
| -0.5 | 2.08 | 1.67 |
| +0.5 | 1.98 | 1.73 |
| +1 | 1.73 | 1.95 |
| +1.5 | 1.60▼ | 2.25▲ |
| +2 | 1.44 | 2.56▲ |
| +2.5 | 1.38 | 2.83▲ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 1.45▲ | 2.55▼ |
| 7 | 1.53▼ | 2.34▲ |
| 7.5 | 1.73▼ | 2.00▲ |
| 8 | 1.85▼ | 1.84▲ |
| 8.5 | 2.04▼ | 1.74▲ |
| 9 | 2.27▼ | 1.57▲ |
| 9.5 | 2.50▼ | 1.48▲ |
| 10 | 2.78▲ | 1.38 |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hanshin Tigers | 115 | 65 | 50 | +66 | 56 | — |
| 2 | Yomiuri Giants | 117 | 63 | 54 | +30 | 54 | — |
| 3 |  Yokohama BayStars | 116 | 52 | 64 | +5 | 45 | — |
| 4 | Yakult Swallows | 115 | 51 | 64 | -79 | 44 | — |
| 5 |  Chunichi Dragons | 119 | 51 | 68 | -6 | 43 | — |
| 6 |  Hiroshima Carp | 112 | 46 | 66 | -74 | 41 | — |
| 1 |  Fukuoka S. Hawks | 116 | 72 | 44 | +181 | 62 | — |
| 2 |  Seibu Lions | 119 | 67 | 52 | +37 | 56 | — |
| 3 |  Nippon Ham Fighters | 119 | 65 | 54 | +64 | 55 | — |
| 4 |  Orix Buffaloes | 118 | 56 | 62 | -71 | 48 | — |
| 5 |  Chiba Lotte Marines | 113 | 52 | 61 | -71 | 46 | — |
| 6 |  Rakuten Gold. Eagles | 115 | 45 | 70 | -82 | 39 | — |
More NPB predictions
Nippon Ham FightersChiba Lotte MarinesSeibu LionsRakuten Gold. EaglesHanshin TigersYomiuri GiantsHiroshima CarpYakult SwallowsFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Yakult Swallows vs Yomiuri Giants?+
Our AI model favors Yakult Swallows to win, with a 60% probability (Yomiuri Giants 40%).
What time does Yakult Swallows vs Yomiuri Giants start?+
First pitch is at Aug 25, 2026, 9:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Yakult Swallows vs Yomiuri Giants?+
Yakult Swallows: 1, 1, 2, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0. Yomiuri Giants: 3, 2, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1. Final: 6-8.