Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays
Value found
+22.7% edgeTampa Bay Rays win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Baltimore Orioles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 5 | 8 | 0 |
 Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 4-6
The analysis indicates that the Tampa Bay Rays, ranked first in the American League, hold a strong statistical advantage with a better overall record and recent performance. Baltimore's struggles at home, coupled with Tampa Bay scoring significantly more in their last 10 games, suggest the Rays are likely to prevail in this matchup.
- Tampa Bay Rays rank 1 in the American League with a 0.598 win percentage, indicating strong overall performance this season.
- Baltimore Orioles have a home win rate of only 40%, suggesting struggles at home despite recent matchups against the Rays.
- The Rays scored an average of 6 runs in their last 10 games while the Orioles allowed an average of 4.9 runs, which may favor Tampa Bay's offense.
Confidence is high because the win-probability gap between the two teams is moderate, and the bookmaker market sees this differently, which tempers confidence, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Tampa Bay Rays
- Higher league positionTampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays sit 3 places above Baltimore Orioles in the table.
#1 vs #4 - Sharper attackTampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays are averaging 3.8 runs scored per game over their recent matches.
3.8/game - Historical edgeBaltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins - Tighter defenseBaltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles are conceding just 4 runs per game over their recent matches.
4/game conceded
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Tampa Bay Rays at 59% — final result was Baltimore Orioles win, Baltimore Orioles 5-3 Tampa Bay Rays.
Predicted score was 4-6.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (71/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Baltimore Orioles have averaged 4.4 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Tampa Bay Rays have averaged 3.8 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Baltimore Orioles are unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 meetings with Tampa Bay Rays.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Baltimore Orioles | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 3.43▲ | 1.30▼ |
| -2 | 3.10▲ | 1.35▼ |
| -1.5 | 2.59▲ | 1.51▼ |
| -1 | 2.14▲ | 1.70▼ |
| +1 | 1.55▲ | 2.38▼ |
| +1.5 | 1.45▲ | 2.66▲ |
| +2 | 1.30 | 3.50 |
| +2.5 | 1.27▼ | 3.63▲ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 1.49▲ | 2.57▼ |
| 7 | 1.59▲ | 2.30▼ |
| 7.5 | 1.82▲ | 2.00▼ |
| 8 | 1.91▲ | 1.84▼ |
| 8.5 | 2.07▲ | 1.75▼ |
| 9 | 2.36▲ | 1.55▼ |
| 9.5 | 2.61▲ | 1.47▼ |
| 10 | 2.80▲ | 1.41▼ |
Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
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Pittsburgh PiratesFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays?+
Our AI model favors Tampa Bay Rays to win, with a 59% probability (Baltimore Orioles 41%).
What time does Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays start?+
First pitch is at Aug 21, 2026, 11:15 PM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays?+
Baltimore Orioles: 1, 1, 0, 0, 3, 0, 0, 0. Tampa Bay Rays: 0, 3, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0. Final: 5-3.