Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 4-4
Data suggests a competitive matchup between the Orioles and Rays based on their recent head-to-head encounters, with the Orioles slightly favored due to their recent successes. However, both teams have been capable of scoring and conceding runs at similar rates, contributing to the potential for a high-scoring game.
- Baltimore Orioles have won 3 of the last 5 meetings against the Tampa Bay Rays
- Tampa Bay Rays have a higher average conceding rate of 5.9 runs in their last 10 matches
- Both teams have shown volatility in scoring, averaging around 4.4 runs (Orioles) and 4.3 runs (Rays) recently
Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Baltimore Orioles
- Historical edgeBaltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
4/5 H2H wins - Good recent formBaltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L - Good recent formTampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 45% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Baltimore Orioles at 45% — final result was Tampa Bay Rays win, Baltimore Orioles 1-3 Tampa Bay Rays.
Predicted score was 4-4.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (53/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Baltimore Orioles have averaged 4.4 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Tampa Bay Rays have averaged 3.8 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Baltimore Orioles are unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 meetings with Tampa Bay Rays.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Baltimore Orioles | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| -2 | 3.40 | 1.32 |
| -1.5 | 2.75▼ | 1.43▲ |
| -1 | 2.29▼ | 1.59▲ |
| +1 | 1.68▼ | 2.17▲ |
| +1.5 | 1.57▼ | 2.43▲ |
| +2 | 1.42▼ | 2.90▲ |
| +2.5 | 1.34▼ | 3.19▲ |
| +3 | 1.25▼ | 3.80▲ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 1.40 | 2.81▲ |
| 7.5 | 1.57▼ | 2.36▲ |
| 8 | 1.64▼ | 2.21▲ |
| 8.5 | 1.81▼ | 2.03▲ |
| 9 | 1.95▼ | 1.82▲ |
| 9.5 | 2.18▼ | 1.67▲ |
| 10 | 2.38▼ | 1.54▲ |
| 10.5 | 2.60▼ | 1.49▲ |
Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
More MLB predictions
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays?+
Our AI model favors Baltimore Orioles to win, with a 45% probability (Tampa Bay Rays 55%).
What time does Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays start?+
First pitch is at Aug 23, 2026, 5:35 PM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays?+
Baltimore Orioles: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1. Tampa Bay Rays: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3, 0, 0, 0. Final: 1-3.

