Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays

MLB
WWLWRuns 44-404th in AL East Division · 65-68
WLWWRuns 38-391st in AL East Division · 79-54
Home10W 10L(52-72)
Away8W 12L(82-89)
Today
First pitch
In Progress
Final

Box score

Team123456789RHE
Baltimore Orioles
000000001120
Tampa Bay Rays
000003000371

AI match analysis

Baltimore Orioles win
45%
Tampa Bay Rays win
45%

Predicted score: 4-4

Data suggests a competitive matchup between the Orioles and Rays based on their recent head-to-head encounters, with the Orioles slightly favored due to their recent successes. However, both teams have been capable of scoring and conceding runs at similar rates, contributing to the potential for a high-scoring game.

  • Baltimore Orioles have won 3 of the last 5 meetings against the Tampa Bay Rays
  • Tampa Bay Rays have a higher average conceding rate of 5.9 runs in their last 10 matches
  • Both teams have shown volatility in scoring, averaging around 4.4 runs (Orioles) and 4.3 runs (Rays) recently
AI ConfidenceModerate confidence
53/100

Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Baltimore Orioles

  • Historical edgeBaltimore Orioles

    Baltimore Orioles have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.

    4/5 H2H wins
  • Good recent formBaltimore Orioles

    Baltimore Orioles have won 3 of their last 5 matches.

    3W 0D 2L
  • Good recent formTampa Bay Rays

    Tampa Bay Rays have won 4 of their last 5 matches.

    4W 0D 1L

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • Close matchup

    The model gives the favorite only a 45% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Baltimore Orioles at 45% — final result was Tampa Bay Rays win, Baltimore Orioles 1-3 Tampa Bay Rays.

Predicted score was 4-4.

The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (53/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

Baltimore Orioles1.92market 52.2% · model 45%
Tampa Bay Rays1.92market 52.2% · model 45%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Baltimore Orioles have averaged 4.4 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Tampa Bay Rays have averaged 3.8 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Baltimore Orioles are unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 meetings with Tampa Bay Rays.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

Baltimore Orioles1.92best 1.98AI 45%
Tampa Bay Rays1.92best 2.00AI 45%

Point spread

LineBaltimore OriolesTampa Bay Rays
-23.401.32
-1.52.751.43
-12.291.59
+11.682.17
+1.51.572.43
+21.422.90
+2.51.343.19
+31.253.80

Total points

LineOverUnder
71.402.81
7.51.572.36
81.642.21
8.51.812.03
91.951.82
9.52.181.67
102.381.54
10.52.601.49

Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Moneyline — odds movement

Baltimore Orioles1.92 0.02
Tampa Bay Rays1.92 0.02
23 Aug23 Aug

Model vs market

Baltimore Orioles win-5pp
AI
45%
Market
50%
Tampa Bay Rays win-5pp
AI
45%
Market
50%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

4Baltimore Orioles wins
1Tampa Bay Rays wins
28-17Runs

League standings

#TeamPWLDiffWin%Form
1
Chicago White Sox
1337063+4453
2
Cleveland Guardians
1346866-451
3
Minnesota Twins
1346470-5648
4
Detroit Tigers
1336271+7047
5
Kansas City Royals
1345975-9244
1
Tampa Bay Rays
1337954+4759
2
New York Yankees
1327557+10457
3
Boston Red Sox
1337360+10155
4
Baltimore Orioles
1336568-2249
5
Toronto Blue Jays
1346569-5449
1
Houston Astros
1336667-4850
2
Texas Rangers
1346668-4749
3
Seattle Mariners
1346470-5748
4
Athletics
1345381-18540
5
Los Angeles Angels
1345282-7539
1
Tampa Bay Rays
1337954+4759
2
New York Yankees
1327557+10457
3
Boston Red Sox
1337360+10155
4
Chicago White Sox
1337063+4453
5
Cleveland Guardians
1346866-451
6
Houston Astros
1336667-4850
7
Texas Rangers
1346668-4749
8
Baltimore Orioles
1336568-2249
9
Toronto Blue Jays
1346569-5449
10
Seattle Mariners
1346470-5748
11
Minnesota Twins
1346470-5648
12
Detroit Tigers
1336271+7047
13
Kansas City Royals
1345975-9244
14
Athletics
1345381-18540
15
Los Angeles Angels
1345282-7539
1
Milwaukee Brewers
1338251+16762
2
Chicago Cubs
1347658+11957
3
St.Louis Cardinals
1346668-1549
4
Pittsburgh Pirates
1356570+2448
5
Cincinnati Reds
1346371-10047
1
Atlanta Braves
1337855+11259
2
Philadelphia Phillies
1347460+2355
3
Miami Marlins
1346866+1951
4
Washington Nationals
1356273+646
5
New York Mets
1336073-4645
1
Los Angeles Dodgers
1338053+14960
2
San Diego Padres
1347262+1754
3
Arizona Diamondbacks
1347163+553
4
San Francisco Giants
1335479-7441
5
Colorado Rockies
1335281-13239
1
Milwaukee Brewers
1338251+16762
2
Los Angeles Dodgers
1338053+14960
3
Atlanta Braves
1337855+11259
4
Chicago Cubs
1347658+11957
5
Philadelphia Phillies
1347460+2355
6
San Diego Padres
1347262+1754
7
Arizona Diamondbacks
1347163+553
8
Miami Marlins
1346866+1951
9
St.Louis Cardinals
1346668-1549
10
Pittsburgh Pirates
1356570+2448
11
Cincinnati Reds
1346371-10047
12
Washington Nationals
1356273+646
13
New York Mets
1336073-4645
14
San Francisco Giants
1335479-7441
15
Colorado Rockies
1335281-13239

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays?+

Our AI model favors Baltimore Orioles to win, with a 45% probability (Tampa Bay Rays 55%).

What time does Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays start?+

First pitch is at Aug 23, 2026, 5:35 PM (your local time, based on your device).

What was the inning-by-inning score in Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays?+

Baltimore Orioles: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1. Tampa Bay Rays: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3, 0, 0, 0. Final: 1-3.