Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles
Value found
+4.4% edgeBaltimore Orioles win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 2 | 9 | 0 |
 Baltimore Orioles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 | 0 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 5-4
The data suggests a tightly contested matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles. Historically, the Orioles have recently performed well against the Rays, winning 3 of their last 5 encounters. Despite the Rays' higher overall standing and scoring averages, their recent form might give the Orioles a competitive edge.
- Tampa Bay Rays have lost 5 of their last 10 games.
- Baltimore Orioles have won 3 of their last 5 matchups with Tampa Bay Rays.
- Season averages show the Rays score 5.6 runs while allowing 5.4 runs in the last 10 games.
Confidence is moderate because the two teams are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Tampa Bay Rays
- Higher league positionTampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays sit 3 places above Baltimore Orioles in the table.
#1 vs #4 - Sharper attackTampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays are averaging 3.8 runs scored per game over their recent matches.
3.8/game - Historical edgeBaltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins - Strong home recordTampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays have won 8 of their last 20 home matches.
8/20 home wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 53% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Tampa Bay Rays at 53% — final result was Baltimore Orioles win, Tampa Bay Rays 2-10 Baltimore Orioles.
Predicted score was 5-4.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (68/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Tampa Bay Rays have averaged 3.8 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Baltimore Orioles have averaged 4.4 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Tampa Bay Rays are unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 meetings with Baltimore Orioles.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Tampa Bay Rays | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| -3 | 3.76▼ | 1.25▲ |
| -2.5 | 3.17▼ | 1.33▲ |
| -2 | 2.87▼ | 1.40▲ |
| -1.5 | 2.45▼ | 1.56▲ |
| -1 | 1.98▼ | 1.81▲ |
| +1 | 1.45▼ | 2.63▲ |
| +1.5 | 1.38▼ | 2.90▲ |
| +2.5 | 1.24 | 3.82▼ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | 1.35▼ | 3.01▲ |
| 6.5 | 1.48▼ | 2.57▲ |
| 7 | 1.60▼ | 2.29▲ |
| 7.5 | 1.84▼ | 1.99▲ |
| 8 | 1.98▲ | 1.82▲ |
| 8.5 | 2.12▼ | 1.70▲ |
| 9 | 2.47▲ | 1.52▲ |
| 9.5 | 2.75 | 1.42 |
Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
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Boston Red Sox
Milwaukee Brewers
Texas Rangers
AthleticsBaltimore Orioles
Los Angeles Angels
Philadelphia PhilliesFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles?+
Our AI model favors Tampa Bay Rays to win, with a 53% probability (Baltimore Orioles 47%).
What time does Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles start?+
First pitch is at Aug 16, 2026, 4:15 PM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles?+
Tampa Bay Rays: 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0. Baltimore Orioles: 0, 0, 0, 0, 3, 7, 0, 0, 0. Final: 2-10.