Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles
Value found
+25.2% edgeBaltimore Orioles win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | — | 7 | 12 | 0 |
 Baltimore Orioles | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 1 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 5-6
Data suggests that Baltimore Orioles have a strong recent head-to-head record against Tampa Bay Rays, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters. Additionally, Tampa Bay Rays' concerning average of 6.2 runs conceded in their last 10 matches highlights their defensive vulnerabilities, while the Orioles have maintained a competitive scoring rate. The analysis leans toward a potential victory for the Orioles in this matchup.
- Baltimore Orioles have won 4 of the last 5 matches against Tampa Bay Rays
- Tampa Bay Rays have conceded an average of 6.2 runs per game in their last 10 matches
- Baltimore Orioles scored an average of 4.8 runs in their last 10 matches
Confidence is moderate because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market sees this differently, which tempers confidence, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Baltimore Orioles
- Historical edgeBaltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
4/5 H2H wins - Good recent formTampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L - Good recent formBaltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Baltimore Orioles at 53.09% — final result was Tampa Bay Rays win, Tampa Bay Rays 7-6 Baltimore Orioles.
Predicted score was 5-6.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (53/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Tampa Bay Rays have averaged 3.8 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Baltimore Orioles have averaged 4.4 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Tampa Bay Rays are unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 meetings with Baltimore Orioles.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Tampa Bay Rays | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 4.07▼ | 1.22▲ |
| -3 | 3.65▲ | 1.25 |
| -2.5 | 2.98▼ | 1.37▲ |
| -2 | 2.73▲ | 1.44▲ |
| -1.5 | 2.33▼ | 1.62▲ |
| -1 | 1.90▼ | 1.90▲ |
| +1 | 1.41▼ | 2.83▲ |
| +1.5 | 1.34 | 3.10▲ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | 1.35▲ | 3.03▼ |
| 6.5 | 1.48▲ | 2.59▼ |
| 7 | 1.60▲ | 2.31▲ |
| 7.5 | 1.83▲ | 1.99▲ |
| 8 | 1.96▼ | 1.82▼ |
| 8.5 | 2.11▲ | 1.70▲ |
| 9 | 2.45 | 1.52 |
| 9.5 | 2.71▲ | 1.43▼ |
Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
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AthleticsBaltimore Orioles
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Philadelphia PhilliesFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles?+
Our AI model favors Baltimore Orioles to win, with a 53.09% probability (Tampa Bay Rays 46.91%).
What time does Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles start?+
First pitch is at Aug 17, 2026, 10:05 PM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles?+
Tampa Bay Rays: 0, 0, 1, 3, 0, 0, 3, 0. Baltimore Orioles: 0, 1, 0, 2, 3, 0, 0, 0, 0. Final: 7-6.