Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | X | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
 Baltimore Orioles | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 2 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 6-5
The data suggests the Tampa Bay Rays, ranking first in the American League, hold a slight edge despite their recent struggles against the Baltimore Orioles. Historically, the Rays have been dominant in their matchups against the Orioles, and while both teams have had inconsistent performances lately, the Rays' higher overall win percentage supports their advantage. The predicted score reflects a close contest, likely resulting in a win for the home team.
- Tampa Bay Rays rank 1 in the American League and have a 0.617 win percentage overall.
- Baltimore Orioles have struggled against the Rays, losing 3 of their last 5 matchups.
- The Rays average 5.3 runs scored and 5.6 runs allowed in their last 10 games, indicating fluctuating performance.
- The Orioles have a slightly lower overall record and allowed more runs than they scored this season.
Confidence is high because the win-probability gap between the two teams is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Tampa Bay Rays
- Higher league positionTampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays sit 3 places above Baltimore Orioles in the table.
#1 vs #4 - Historical edgeBaltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins - Sharper attackTampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays are averaging 3.8 runs scored per game over their recent matches.
3.8/game - Strong home recordTampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays have won 8 of their last 20 home matches.
8/20 home wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 56% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Tampa Bay Rays at 56% — final result was Baltimore Orioles win, Tampa Bay Rays 3-4 Baltimore Orioles.
Predicted score was 6-5.
This was a high confidence pick (75/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Tampa Bay Rays have averaged 3.8 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Baltimore Orioles have averaged 4.4 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Tampa Bay Rays are unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 meetings with Baltimore Orioles.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Tampa Bay Rays | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| -3 | 3.92▼ | 1.23▲ |
| -2.5 | 3.22▼ | 1.33▲ |
| -2 | 2.89▼ | 1.39▲ |
| -1.5 | 2.49▼ | 1.55 |
| -1 | 1.98▼ | 1.82▲ |
| +1 | 1.44▼ | 2.69▲ |
| +1.5 | 1.36▼ | 3.01▲ |
| +2.5 | 1.22▼ | 4.03▲ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 1.38 | 2.88▼ |
| 6 | 1.45▲ | 2.66▼ |
| 6.5 | 1.59▲ | 2.31▼ |
| 7 | 1.76▲ | 2.03 |
| 7.5 | 2.00▼ | 1.82▲ |
| 8 | 2.19 | 1.66▼ |
| 8.5 | 2.37▲ | 1.57▼ |
| 9 | 2.82▼ | 1.41▲ |
Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
More MLB predictions
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Boston Red Sox
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Texas Rangers
AthleticsBaltimore Orioles
Los Angeles Angels
Philadelphia PhilliesFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles?+
Our AI model favors Tampa Bay Rays to win, with a 56% probability (Baltimore Orioles 44%).
What time does Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles start?+
First pitch is at Aug 15, 2026, 10:10 PM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles?+
Tampa Bay Rays: 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1. Baltimore Orioles: 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0. Final: 3-4.