Seibu Lions vs Nippon Ham Fighters
Value found
+12.1% edgeSeibu Lions win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Seibu Lions | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
 Nippon Ham Fighters | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10 | 0 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 5-4
Data suggests that the Seibu Lions are in a strong position coming into this matchup, particularly with their effective home performance, winning over half of their games at home this season. The Nippon Ham Fighters, on the other hand, have shown inconsistencies away from home, which may impact their performance. The recent head-to-head trend favors Seibu Lions, making them slightly more likely to secure a win in this contest.
- Seibu Lions have a 55% home win rate this season.
- Nippon Ham Fighters have struggled on the road with a 45% away win rate.
- Seibu Lions outscored opponents 4 runs to 2.1 runs in their last 10 games.
- Seibu Lions have won 3 of their last 4 matchups against Nippon Ham Fighters.
Confidence is moderate because the two teams are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Seibu Lions
- Tighter defenseSeibu Lions
Seibu Lions are conceding just 2.9 runs per game over their recent matches.
2.9/game conceded - Sharper attackNippon Ham Fighters
Nippon Ham Fighters are averaging 6 runs scored per game over their recent matches.
6/game - Good recent formSeibu Lions
Seibu Lions have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L - Poor recent formNippon Ham Fighters
Nippon Ham Fighters have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 53% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Seibu Lions at 53% — final result was Nippon Ham Fighters win, Seibu Lions 1-9 Nippon Ham Fighters.
Predicted score was 5-4.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (64/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Seibu Lions have averaged 4.1 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Nippon Ham Fighters have averaged 6 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Seibu Lions are unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 meetings with Nippon Ham Fighters.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Seibu Lions | Nippon Ham Fighters |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3.36▼ | 1.28 |
| -1 | 2.83 | 1.34 |
| -0.5 | 2.13 | 1.65 |
| +0.5 | 2.01 | 1.72 |
| +1 | 1.76 | 1.91 |
| +1.5 | 1.58▼ | 2.29▲ |
| +2 | 1.43 | 2.63▲ |
| +2.5 | 1.35▼ | 3.01▲ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1.38▲ | 2.82▼ |
| 5.5 | 1.60▲ | 2.23▼ |
| 6 | 1.71▲ | 2.04▼ |
| 6.5 | 1.90▲ | 1.84▼ |
| 7 | 2.12▲ | 1.65▼ |
| 7.5 | 2.40▲ | 1.52▼ |
| 8 | 2.68 | 1.38 |
| 8.5 | 2.80 | 1.38 |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hanshin Tigers | 114 | 64 | 50 | +63 | 56 | — |
| 2 |  Yomiuri Giants | 116 | 63 | 53 | +33 | 54 | — |
| 3 |  Yokohama BayStars | 115 | 51 | 64 | +3 | 44 | — |
| 4 |  Yakult Swallows | 114 | 50 | 64 | -81 | 44 | — |
| 5 |  Chunichi Dragons | 118 | 51 | 67 | -4 | 43 | — |
| 6 |  Hiroshima Carp | 111 | 46 | 65 | -72 | 41 | — |
| 1 |  Fukuoka S. Hawks | 115 | 71 | 44 | +179 | 62 | — |
| 2 | Seibu Lions | 118 | 66 | 52 | +33 | 56 | — |
| 3 | Nippon Ham Fighters | 118 | 64 | 54 | +62 | 54 | — |
| 4 |  Orix Buffaloes | 117 | 56 | 61 | -69 | 48 | — |
| 5 |  Chiba Lotte Marines | 112 | 52 | 60 | -69 | 46 | — |
| 6 |  Rakuten Gold. Eagles | 114 | 45 | 69 | -78 | 40 | — |
More NPB predictions
Nippon Ham FightersChiba Lotte MarinesSeibu LionsRakuten Gold. EaglesHanshin TigersYomiuri GiantsHiroshima CarpYakult SwallowsFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Seibu Lions vs Nippon Ham Fighters?+
Our AI model favors Seibu Lions to win, with a 53% probability (Nippon Ham Fighters 47%).
What time does Seibu Lions vs Nippon Ham Fighters start?+
First pitch is at Aug 26, 2026, 9:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Seibu Lions vs Nippon Ham Fighters?+
Seibu Lions: 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0. Nippon Ham Fighters: 0, 0, 1, 3, 0, 5, 0, 0, 0. Final: 1-9.