Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees

MLB
WLWWRuns 39-444th in AL East Division · 67-70
LWLWRuns 47-342nd in AL East Division · 76-59
Home12W 8L(83-80)
Away12W 8L(98-87)
Today
First pitch
In Progress
Final

Box score

Team123456789RHE
Toronto Blue Jays
001000124100
New York Yankees
010000000140

AI match analysis

Toronto Blue Jays win
34%
New York Yankees win
55%

Predicted score: 3-5

Data suggests that the New York Yankees have struggled defensively recently, allowing an average of 4.7 runs over their last 10 matches. Meanwhile, the Toronto Blue Jays performed well in their recent head-to-head matchups, securing victories in 3 out of their last 5 encounters against the Yankees. The numbers favor the Yankees based on their scoring averages, but the Blue Jays' recent form against them adds an interesting dynamic.

  • Toronto Blue Jays won 3 of the last 5 encounters against the Yankees.
  • New York Yankees have conceded an average of 4.7 runs per game in their last 10 matches.
  • Toronto Blue Jays scored an average of 3.5 runs per game in their last 10 matches.
AI ConfidenceModerate confidence
71/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors New York Yankees

  • Historical edgeNew York Yankees

    New York Yankees have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.

    3/5 H2H wins
  • Good recent formToronto Blue Jays

    Toronto Blue Jays have won 3 of their last 5 matches.

    3W 0D 2L
  • Good recent formNew York Yankees

    New York Yankees have won 3 of their last 5 matches.

    3W 0D 2L

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked New York Yankees at 55% — final result was Toronto Blue Jays win, Toronto Blue Jays 4-1 New York Yankees.

Predicted score was 3-5.

The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (71/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

New York Yankees1.54market 64.9% · model 55%
Toronto Blue Jays2.55market 39.2% · model 34%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Toronto Blue Jays have averaged 3.9 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • New York Yankees have averaged 4.7 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Toronto Blue Jays are unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 meetings with New York Yankees.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

Toronto Blue Jays2.55best 2.64AI 34%
New York Yankees1.54best 1.60AI 55%

Point spread

LineToronto Blue JaysNew York Yankees
-1.54.001.23
-13.561.27
+12.181.67
+1.51.881.94
+21.652.22
+2.51.522.49
+31.382.96
+3.51.293.34

Total points

LineOverUnder
5.51.402.84
61.482.59
6.51.632.24
71.811.97
7.52.041.80
82.271.62
8.52.441.53
92.901.37

Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Moneyline — odds movement

Toronto Blue Jays2.55 0.11
New York Yankees1.54 0.01
15 Aug15 Aug

Model vs market

Toronto Blue Jays win-3.7pp
AI
34%
Market
37.7%
New York Yankees win-7.3pp
AI
55%
Market
62.3%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

2Toronto Blue Jays wins
3New York Yankees wins
14-19Runs

League standings

#TeamPWLDiffWin%Form
1
Chicago White Sox
1357263+4853
2
Cleveland Guardians
1366868-1250
3
Minnesota Twins
1366472-6047
4
Detroit Tigers
1356372+7047
5
Kansas City Royals
1376275-7345
1
Tampa Bay Rays
1358154+5360
2
New York Yankees
1357659+9556
3
Boston Red Sox
1357461+10655
4
Toronto Blue Jays
1376770-5749
5
Baltimore Orioles
1356669-2349
1
Houston Astros
1366868-4650
2
Texas Rangers
1356669-5249
3
Seattle Mariners
1366472-6547
4
Athletics
1355382-18639
5
Los Angeles Angels
1355283-7739
1
Tampa Bay Rays
1358154+5360
2
New York Yankees
1357659+9556
3
Boston Red Sox
1357461+10655
4
Chicago White Sox
1357263+4853
5
Cleveland Guardians
1366868-1250
6
Houston Astros
1366868-4650
7
Toronto Blue Jays
1376770-5749
8
Baltimore Orioles
1356669-2349
9
Texas Rangers
1356669-5249
10
Seattle Mariners
1366472-6547
11
Minnesota Twins
1366472-6047
12
Detroit Tigers
1356372+7047
13
Kansas City Royals
1376275-7345
14
Athletics
1355382-18639
15
Los Angeles Angels
1355283-7739
1
Milwaukee Brewers
1358451+17862
2
Chicago Cubs
1367759+12957
3
St.Louis Cardinals
1376869-1450
4
Pittsburgh Pirates
1376671+2548
5
Cincinnati Reds
1366472-11047
1
Atlanta Braves
1368155+11660
2
Philadelphia Phillies
1357560+2556
3
Miami Marlins
1366868+1150
4
Washington Nationals
1386573+2047
5
New York Mets
1366175-5045
1
Los Angeles Dodgers
1368155+14860
2
Arizona Diamondbacks
1377364+1053
3
San Diego Padres
1367264+1153
4
San Francisco Giants
1365581-7940
5
Colorado Rockies
1365284-14138
1
Milwaukee Brewers
1358451+17862
2
Atlanta Braves
1368155+11660
3
Los Angeles Dodgers
1368155+14860
4
Chicago Cubs
1367759+12957
5
Philadelphia Phillies
1357560+2556
6
Arizona Diamondbacks
1377364+1053
7
San Diego Padres
1367264+1153
8
Miami Marlins
1366868+1150
9
St.Louis Cardinals
1376869-1450
10
Pittsburgh Pirates
1376671+2548
11
Washington Nationals
1386573+2047
12
Cincinnati Reds
1366472-11047
13
New York Mets
1366175-5045
14
San Francisco Giants
1365581-7940
15
Colorado Rockies
1365284-14138

More MLB predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees?+

Our AI model favors New York Yankees to win, with a 55% probability (Toronto Blue Jays 45%).

What time does Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees start?+

First pitch is at Aug 15, 2026, 7:07 PM (your local time, based on your device).

What was the inning-by-inning score in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees?+

Toronto Blue Jays: 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 2. New York Yankees: 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0. Final: 4-1.