New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays

MLB
WLWLRuns 43-352nd in AL East Division · 75-57
LWLWRuns 45-465th in AL East Division · 65-69
Home13W 7L(88-65)
Away10W 10L(97-97)
Today
First pitch
In Progress
Final

Box score

Team123456789RHE
New York Yankees
020003218111
Toronto Blue Jays
001100010350

AI match analysis

New York Yankees win
49.71%
Toronto Blue Jays win
39.77%

Predicted score: 4-3

Data suggests a tightly contested matchup as both teams have shown strong recent form, particularly in scoring. The New York Yankees average slightly fewer runs than the Toronto Blue Jays in recent games, but their favorable head-to-head record may play a significant role. Given the strong performance by both clubs, the numbers suggest a slight edge for the Yankees at home.

  • New York Yankees averaging 3.6 runs scored per game in last 10 matches
  • Toronto Blue Jays averaging 4.2 runs scored per game in last 10 matches
  • Recent head-to-head record shows both teams evenly matched
  • Yankees won 3 out of the last 5 encounters against Blue Jays
AI ConfidenceModerate confidence
62/100

Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors New York Yankees

  • Poor recent formNew York Yankees

    New York Yankees have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

    2W 0D 3L
  • Poor recent formToronto Blue Jays

    Toronto Blue Jays have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

    2W 0D 3L
  • Historical edgeToronto Blue Jays

    Toronto Blue Jays have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.

    3/5 H2H wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • Close matchup

    The model gives the favorite only a 50% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked New York Yankees at 49.71% — final result was New York Yankees win, New York Yankees 8-3 Toronto Blue Jays.

Predicted score was 4-3.

The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (62/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.

Closing odds vs. our model

New York Yankees1.72market 58.3% · model 49.71%
Toronto Blue Jays2.16market 46.2% · model 39.77%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • New York Yankees have averaged 4.3 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Toronto Blue Jays have averaged 4.5 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • New York Yankees are unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 meetings with Toronto Blue Jays.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

New York Yankees1.72best 1.78AI 49.71%
Toronto Blue Jays2.16best 2.23AI 39.77%

Point spread

LineNew York YankeesToronto Blue Jays
-2.53.321.31
-22.971.37
-1.52.501.54
-12.061.76
+11.502.53
+1.51.402.83
+21.203.90
+2.51.243.90

Total points

LineOverUnder
61.362.99
6.51.492.56
71.612.27
7.51.851.97
81.981.81
8.52.131.70
92.481.51
9.52.671.45

Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Moneyline — odds movement

New York Yankees1.72 0.02
Toronto Blue Jays2.16 0.03
23 Aug23 Aug

Model vs market

New York Yankees win-6.1pp
AI
49.71%
Market
55.8%
Toronto Blue Jays win-4.4pp
AI
39.77%
Market
44.2%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

2New York Yankees wins
3Toronto Blue Jays wins
12-15Runs

League standings

#TeamPWLDiffWin%Form
1
Chicago White Sox
1337063+4453
2
Cleveland Guardians
1346866-451
3
Minnesota Twins
1346470-5648
4
Detroit Tigers
1336271+7047
5
Kansas City Royals
1345975-9244
1
Tampa Bay Rays
1337954+4759
2
New York Yankees
1327557+10457
3
Boston Red Sox
1337360+10155
4
Baltimore Orioles
1336568-2249
5
Toronto Blue Jays
1346569-5449
1
Houston Astros
1336667-4850
2
Texas Rangers
1346668-4749
3
Seattle Mariners
1346470-5748
4
Athletics
1345381-18540
5
Los Angeles Angels
1345282-7539
1
Tampa Bay Rays
1337954+4759
2
New York Yankees
1327557+10457
3
Boston Red Sox
1337360+10155
4
Chicago White Sox
1337063+4453
5
Cleveland Guardians
1346866-451
6
Houston Astros
1336667-4850
7
Texas Rangers
1346668-4749
8
Baltimore Orioles
1336568-2249
9
Toronto Blue Jays
1346569-5449
10
Seattle Mariners
1346470-5748
11
Minnesota Twins
1346470-5648
12
Detroit Tigers
1336271+7047
13
Kansas City Royals
1345975-9244
14
Athletics
1345381-18540
15
Los Angeles Angels
1345282-7539
1
Milwaukee Brewers
1338251+16762
2
Chicago Cubs
1347658+11957
3
St.Louis Cardinals
1346668-1549
4
Pittsburgh Pirates
1356570+2448
5
Cincinnati Reds
1346371-10047
1
Atlanta Braves
1337855+11259
2
Philadelphia Phillies
1347460+2355
3
Miami Marlins
1346866+1951
4
Washington Nationals
1356273+646
5
New York Mets
1336073-4645
1
Los Angeles Dodgers
1338053+14960
2
San Diego Padres
1347262+1754
3
Arizona Diamondbacks
1347163+553
4
San Francisco Giants
1335479-7441
5
Colorado Rockies
1335281-13239
1
Milwaukee Brewers
1338251+16762
2
Los Angeles Dodgers
1338053+14960
3
Atlanta Braves
1337855+11259
4
Chicago Cubs
1347658+11957
5
Philadelphia Phillies
1347460+2355
6
San Diego Padres
1347262+1754
7
Arizona Diamondbacks
1347163+553
8
Miami Marlins
1346866+1951
9
St.Louis Cardinals
1346668-1549
10
Pittsburgh Pirates
1356570+2448
11
Cincinnati Reds
1346371-10047
12
Washington Nationals
1356273+646
13
New York Mets
1336073-4645
14
San Francisco Giants
1335479-7441
15
Colorado Rockies
1335281-13239

More MLB predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays?+

Our AI model favors New York Yankees to win, with a 49.71% probability (Toronto Blue Jays 50.29%).

What time does New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays start?+

First pitch is at Aug 23, 2026, 5:35 PM (your local time, based on your device).

What was the inning-by-inning score in New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays?+

New York Yankees: 0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 3, 2, 1. Toronto Blue Jays: 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0. Final: 8-3.