Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies
Value found
+9.1% edgeColorado Rockies win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Washington Nationals | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
 Colorado Rockies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 15 | 0 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 4-5
The data suggests a closely contested matchup between the Washington Nationals and Colorado Rockies, with the Rockies slightly favored to win based on recent trends. Historically, the Rockies have performed better against the Nationals in their recent encounters, winning 3 out of the last 5 games. Meanwhile, the Nationals have struggled at home with a win rate of only 40%, which could further tilt the odds in favor of the Rockies.
- Washington Nationals have a home win rate of 40% this season
- Colorado Rockies have a 30% away win rate this season
- In their last 10 games, Rockies averaged 4.1 runs scored and allowed 7.2 runs per game
- Rockies have won 3 of their last 5 matchups against the Nationals
Confidence is moderate because the two teams are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Colorado Rockies
- Tighter defenseWashington Nationals
Washington Nationals are conceding just 4 runs per game over their recent matches.
4/game conceded - Sharper attackColorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies are averaging 4.1 runs scored per game over their recent matches.
4.1/game - Historical edgeWashington Nationals
Washington Nationals have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins - Higher league positionWashington Nationals
Washington Nationals sit 1 place above Colorado Rockies in the table.
#4 vs #5
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 52% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Colorado Rockies at 52% — final result was Colorado Rockies win, Washington Nationals 1-13 Colorado Rockies.
Predicted score was 4-5.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (65/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Washington Nationals have averaged 3.4 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Colorado Rockies have averaged 4.1 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Washington Nationals are unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 meetings with Colorado Rockies.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Washington Nationals | Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 3.26▼ | 1.33▼ |
| -2 | 2.99▼ | 1.39▲ |
| -1.5 | 2.54▲ | 1.53▼ |
| -1 | 2.10▼ | 1.74▲ |
| +1 | 1.56▼ | 2.41▲ |
| +1.5 | 1.48▼ | 2.61▲ |
| +2 | 1.36 | 3.06▼ |
| +2.5 | 1.29▲ | 3.41▼ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 1.37▲ | 2.86▼ |
| 7.5 | 1.55▲ | 2.40▼ |
| 8 | 1.63▲ | 2.21▼ |
| 8.5 | 1.78 | 2.04▼ |
| 9 | 1.96▲ | 1.84▲ |
| 9.5 | 2.17▲ | 1.67 |
| 10 | 2.39▲ | 1.54▼ |
| 10.5 | 2.56▲ | 1.50▼ |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
Washington NationalsColorado RockiesWashington NationalsColorado RockiesWashington NationalsColorado RockiesWashington NationalsColorado RockiesWashington NationalsColorado RockiesLeague standings
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Who is likely to win Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies?+
Our AI model favors Colorado Rockies to win, with a 52% probability (Washington Nationals 48%).
What time does Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies start?+
First pitch is at Aug 26, 2026, 10:45 PM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies?+
Washington Nationals: 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0. Colorado Rockies: 0, 0, 0, 0, 4, 0, 4, 5, 0. Final: 1-13.